TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Bilobrov vs Yaroslav Kovshun 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1139111113116711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:56 and never touched: 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Bilobrov above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 7-10
Point 92 set 5, 7-10 · our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 66.9%
92 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Volodymyr Bilobrov 4–12 Yaroslav Kovshun Volodymyr Bilobrov has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5666.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-12 in 16
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bilobrov 1560 vs Kovshun 1623
Kovshun
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bilobrov 40% vs Kovshun 20%
Bilobrov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bilobrov 40% vs Kovshun 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bilobrov +1 · Kovshun -3
Kovshun
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Kovshun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBilobrov 2.625 / Kovshun 1.444
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Kovshun)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234523
Bilobrov2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 27 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back15% 5 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Kovshun1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 110 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it93% 49 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it79% 76 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBilobrov3wins
AwayKovshun7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBilobrov50%2 of 4
AwayKovshun83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bilobrov4Kovshun6n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S2Bilobrov3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S3Bilobrov3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S4Bilobrov1Kovshun5n = 6Kovshun took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBilobrovKovshunB − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.337.0−5.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBilobrovKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 186 vs 342 / 64245.7%53.3%85 / 186 vs 342 / 642Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunBilobrov 2.63/Kovshun 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 06:30V. Bilobrov27114661Y. Kovshun4291111113
WSep 18 · 07:00V. Bilobrov331111113Y. Kovshun177640
LSep 15 · 05:30V. Bilobrov34711881Y. Kovshun4011711113
LSep 12 · 07:05V. Bilobrov185760Y. Kovshun331111113
WSep 11 · 05:30V. Bilobrov47119115113Y. Kovshun4151161182
LJul 14 · 07:05V. Bilobrov24341161Y. Kovshun3911116113
LJun 26 · 11:05V. Bilobrov31118391Y. Kovshun4181111113
WJun 7 · 09:05V. Bilobrov46411812113Y. Kovshun44118111042
LMay 25 · 11:00V. Bilobrov196850Y. Kovshun331111113
LMay 23 · 08:05V. Bilobrov341013110Y. Kovshun401215133
V. Bilobrov10
WOct 3 · 09:00A. Lobanov1.5312116882V. Bilobrov2.381031111113LOct 3 · 08:00V. Bilobrov2.7588111162V. Kryvenko1.40111169113LOct 3 · 07:00I. Efimenko1.251111113V. Bilobrov3.757980WOct 3 · 05:30V. Bilobrov1.301111113O. Tymofeev3.409560LSep 28 · 11:30V. Bilobrov1.2210960A. Martyniuk4.001211113WSep 28 · 09:30I. Emets2.633640V. Bilobrov1.441111113WSep 28 · 07:30V. Kolesnykov1.50811111392V. Bilobrov2.50119715113LSep 28 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.401113831A. Troyan1.3051511113LSep 28 · 05:30Y. Volkov1.5081211123V. Bilobrov2.5011107101LSep 22 · 11:30V. Bilobrov2.753740A. Troyan1.401111113
Y. Kovshun10
LOct 3 · 10:00V. Kryvenko1.6111611113Y. Kovshun2.20911481LOct 3 · 08:30I. Efimenko1.571111123Y. Kovshun2.2522100LOct 3 · 06:30O. Tymofeev2.38817138113Y. Kovshun1.531115111192WOct 3 · 04:30A. Lobanov1.6171111962Y. Kovshun2.20113811113LOct 2 · 09:43A. Troyan1.91117136113Y. Kovshun1.80811111172WOct 2 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.501211118113A. Troyan2.5014681172WOct 2 · 07:30O. Karpenko2.10291191Y. Kovshun1.6711119113LOct 2 · 06:30Y. Volkov1.801111113Y. Kovshun1.915870WOct 2 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.6391161182Y. Kovshun1.44116119113WOct 1 · 09:59Y. Kovshun1.802111111113Y. Volkov1.9111391382
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