TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Arsenii Lobanov vs Volodymyr Bilobrov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210113611811811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeArsenii Lobanov to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArsenii Lobanov above · Volodymyr Bilobrov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Arsenii Lobanov at 62.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Arsenii Lobanov 4–2 Volodymyr Bilobrov Volodymyr Bilobrov has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5862.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lobanov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Lobanov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobanov 1581 vs Bilobrov 1549
Lobanov
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobanov 0% vs Bilobrov 40%
Bilobrov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobanov 30% vs Bilobrov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobanov -5 · Bilobrov -2
Lobanov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Lobanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobanov form (0%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobanov 1.533 / Bilobrov 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Lobanov)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234757
Lobanov1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 21 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Bilobrov2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 27 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back15% 5 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeLobanov4wins
AwayBilobrov2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLobanov leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobanovn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBilobrov40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobanov1Bilobrov5n = 6Bilobrov took 5 of 6
S2Lobanov6Bilobrov0n = 6Lobanov took 6 of 6
S3Lobanov4Bilobrov2n = 6Lobanov took 4 of 6
S4Lobanov4Bilobrov2n = 6Lobanov took 4 of 6
S5Lobanov1Bilobrov2n = 3Bilobrov took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricLobanovBilobrovL − BBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match42.338.2+4.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobanovBilobrovBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 126 vs 84 / 18550.8%45.4%64 / 126 vs 84 / 185Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LobanovLobanov 1.53/Bilobrov 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Lobanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bilobrov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 19 · 07:05A. Lobanov4991181472V. Bilobrov541191112113
WSep 6 · 10:00A. Lobanov4181111113V. Bilobrov33119761
LAug 9 · 08:30A. Lobanov4081111912V. Bilobrov44117411113
WJun 1 · 05:05A. Lobanov3711123113V. Bilobrov316101141
WApr 27 · 06:00A. Lobanov3961111113V. Bilobrov24119221
WFeb 16 · 08:30A. Lobanov48911115123V. Bilobrov43119211102
A. Lobanov10
LOct 3 · 10:30A. Lobanov1.9112430I. Efimenko1.801411113LOct 3 · 07:30A. Lobanov2.0061050O. Tymofeev1.731112113LOct 3 · 06:00A. Lobanov1.80101880V. Kryvenko1.911220113LOct 3 · 04:30A. Lobanov1.6171111962Y. Kovshun2.20113811113LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113LAug 23 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko2.75101211113A. Lobanov1.401210741LAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102
V. Bilobrov10
LOct 3 · 08:00V. Bilobrov2.7588111162V. Kryvenko1.40111169113LOct 3 · 07:00I. Efimenko1.251111113V. Bilobrov3.757980WOct 3 · 05:30V. Bilobrov1.301111113O. Tymofeev3.409560LSep 28 · 11:30V. Bilobrov1.2210960A. Martyniuk4.001211113WSep 28 · 09:30I. Emets2.633640V. Bilobrov1.441111113WSep 28 · 07:30V. Kolesnykov1.50811111392V. Bilobrov2.50119715113LSep 28 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.401113831A. Troyan1.3051511113LSep 28 · 05:30Y. Volkov1.5081211123V. Bilobrov2.5011107101LSep 22 · 11:30V. Bilobrov2.753740A. Troyan1.401111113WSep 22 · 09:30O. Volynets3.008860V. Bilobrov1.361111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Lobanov
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V. Bilobrov
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