TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Kovalenko vs Dmytro Patalakha 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12104111416411––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:26 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatolii Kovalenko above · Dmytro Patalakha below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 82 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Kovalenko 5–4 Dmytro Patalakha Dmytro Patalakha has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Patalakha
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1439 vs Patalakha 1480
Patalakha
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 20% vs Patalakha 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 30% vs Patalakha 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -4 · Patalakha +1
Kovalenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Patalakha form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.833 / Patalakha 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalenko)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13271002
Kovalenko1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Patalakha1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKovalenko5wins
AwayPatalakha4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKovalenko leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayPatalakha66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko6Patalakha3n = 9Kovalenko took 6 of 9
S2Kovalenko5Patalakha4n = 9Kovalenko took 5 of 9
S3Kovalenko3Patalakha6n = 9Patalakha took 6 of 9
S4Kovalenko4Patalakha3n = 7Kovalenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKovalenkoPatalakhaK − PBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match39.937.5+2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoPatalakhaBasisWin rate · lifetime303 / 578 vs 113 / 24352.4%46.5%303 / 578 vs 113 / 243Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.83/Patalakha 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Patalakha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 6 · 08:50A. Kovalenko334111171D. Patalakha4211137113
WJul 25 · 13:30A. Kovalenko4113125113D. Patalakha3911101171
LJun 14 · 07:50A. Kovalenko341167101D. Patalakha4171111123
WJun 13 · 16:20A. Kovalenko351111133D. Patalakha2898110
LJun 7 · 05:50A. Kovalenko3579190D. Patalakha431111213
WJun 6 · 17:50A. Kovalenko43111110113D. Patalakha31781241
WMay 3 · 05:50A. Kovalenko44111111113D. Patalakha29813531
WMay 2 · 20:20A. Kovalenko541112911113D. Patalakha47131011672
A. Kovalenko10
LOct 10 · 15:30A. Martyniuk1.4412117113A. Kovalenko2.631071141LOct 10 · 13:30O. Osadchyi1.50991111113A. Kovalenko2.5011117572LOct 10 · 12:30B. Zaika1.7311146113A. Kovalenko2.006121181LOct 5 · 11:30A. Kovalenko2.258680S. Solomko1.571111113WOct 5 · 09:30V. Kolesnykov1.4088111162A. Kovalenko2.75111147113WOct 5 · 07:30O. Volynets1.40121360A. Kovalenko2.751415113WOct 5 · 06:30A. Kovalenko1.9111118163E. Populovskyi1.807611141LOct 5 · 05:30O. Leonenko1.73111312113A. Kovalenko2.007151061LOct 4 · 12:50A. Kurtenko2.00101211113A. Kovalenko1.731210741LOct 4 · 11:20A. Kovalenko2.258930O. Osadchyi1.571111113
D. Patalakha10
LOct 10 · 18:30A. Martyniuk1.401111113D. Patalakha2.758790WOct 10 · 16:00B. Zaika1.67126771D. Patalakha2.10101111113LOct 10 · 14:00E. Populovskyi2.6311126103D. Patalakha1.447101181LOct 10 · 12:00O. Osadchyi1.441211113D. Patalakha2.6310820LSep 27 · 10:48D. Patalakha3.40811111142O. Tymofeev1.30111337113LSep 27 · 09:50O. Tymofeev1.30114115113D. Patalakha3.4091151142WSep 27 · 08:20A. Kurtenko1.67911118102D. Patalakha2.10117911123LSep 27 · 06:50O. Osadchyi1.40811911113D. Patalakha2.7511511662WSep 27 · 05:50S. Solomko1.918780D. Patalakha1.801111113LSep 26 · 18:30O. Osadchyi1.36814118113D. Patalakha3.00111291162
Upcoming Matches
A. Kovalenko
D. Patalakha
Nothing scheduled
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