TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Eduard Populovskyi vs Serhii Baranskyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111171311116––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:45 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Eduard Populovskyi @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingEduard Populovskyi above · Serhii Baranskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 78 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 63.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Populovskyi 1–0 Serhii Baranskyi Serhii Baranskyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 09:45Sent to Pro: Eduard Populovskyi @ 1.50 · Won
63.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Populovskyi 1398 vs Baranskyi 1332
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Populovskyi 60% vs Baranskyi 0%
Populovskyi
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Populovskyi 60% vs Baranskyi 20%
Populovskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Populovskyi +2 · Baranskyi -7
Baranskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Populovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baranskyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPopulovskyi 1.50 / Baranskyi 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Populovskyi)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276530
Populovskyi1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 91 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it98% 49 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it85% 67 of 79
Baranskyi2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 15 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back13% 3 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePopulovskyi1wins
AwayBaranskyi0wins
Populovskyi leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPopulovskyiBaranskyiP − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.032.0+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPopulovskyiBaranskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime343 / 712 vs 103 / 20348.2%50.7%343 / 712 vs 103 / 203Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiPopulovskyi 1.50/Baranskyi 2.50
Hit
What we said
63.3%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Eduard Populovskyi @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
3–1
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 19 · 14:00E. Populovskyi381611113S. Baranskyi3214990
E. Populovskyi10
WOct 11 · 09:20B. Zaika1.40981171E. Populovskyi2.7511113113WOct 11 · 07:20M. Stetsenko3.00571151E. Populovskyi1.3611118113LOct 11 · 06:20D. Patalakha1.44211411113E. Populovskyi2.6311711562LOct 10 · 19:00E. Populovskyi1.8387111192A. Kovalenko1.83111138103WOct 10 · 17:00B. Zaika1.3611911582E. Populovskyi3.00811611113LOct 10 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.251215133E. Populovskyi3.751013110WOct 10 · 14:00E. Populovskyi2.6311126103D. Patalakha1.447101181WOct 10 · 13:00A. Martyniuk1.36811591E. Populovskyi3.001171192LOct 9 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.001111711113E. Populovskyi1.7313611492WOct 9 · 11:20E. Populovskyi1.3691111113M. Stetsenko3.00113741
S. Baranskyi10
LOct 11 · 12:20B. Zaika1.2811119113S. Baranskyi3.50681151LOct 11 · 09:50D. Patalakha1.4491111113S. Baranskyi2.63118581LOct 11 · 07:50S. Solomko1.301111810113S. Baranskyi3.4087111262LOct 11 · 05:50M. Stetsenko1.531111113S. Baranskyi2.387810LOct 4 · 18:00V. Nechai1.671111113S. Baranskyi2.103650LOct 4 · 17:00S. Baranskyi2.2015460S. Skhabitskiy1.611711113LOct 4 · 16:00S. Baranskyi2.0011613752M. Stetsenko1.739111111113LOct 4 · 14:30S. Baranskyi1.7311751162O. Mytsyk2.00411117113WOct 4 · 12:30S. Baranskyi1.22118115113O. Ovsiienko4.0071131172WSep 30 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.91611581S. Baranskyi1.8011611113
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