TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Baranskyi vs Sergii Skhabitskiy 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1517411611––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSergii Skhabitskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Baranskyi above · Sergii Skhabitskiy below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 64 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Baranskyi 0–2 Sergii Skhabitskiy Serhii Baranskyi has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4954.0%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.9pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skhabitskiy
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Baranskyi 1383 vs Skhabitskiy 1290
Baranskyi
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baranskyi 40% vs Skhabitskiy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baranskyi 30% vs Skhabitskiy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baranskyi -2 · Skhabitskiy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skhabitskiy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skhabitskiy form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaranskyi 2.20 / Skhabitskiy 1.615
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skhabitskiy)-7.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13239945
Baranskyi2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 15 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Skhabitskiy1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 104 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it98% 54 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it81% 79 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBaranskyi0wins
AwaySkhabitskiy2wins
Skhabitskiy leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricBaranskyiSkhabitskiyB − SBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match34.042.0−8.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranskyiSkhabitskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 198 vs 474 / 108452%43.7%103 / 198 vs 474 / 1084Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkhabitskiyBaranskyi 2.20/Skhabitskiy 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skhabitskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 30 · 17:00S. Baranskyi4517117101S. Skhabitskiy5019811123
LJul 19 · 17:40S. Baranskyi2310580S. Skhabitskiy341211113
S. Baranskyi10
LOct 4 · 16:00S. Baranskyi2.0011613752M. Stetsenko1.739111111113LOct 4 · 14:30S. Baranskyi1.7311751162O. Mytsyk2.00411117113WOct 4 · 12:30S. Baranskyi1.22118115113O. Ovsiienko4.0071131172WSep 30 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.91611581S. Baranskyi1.8011611113LSep 30 · 17:00S. Baranskyi2.2017117101S. Skhabitskiy1.6119811123WSep 30 · 16:00S. Baranskyi1.5091111113O. Ovsiienko2.50113771LSep 30 · 14:30S. Baranskyi2.20115671V. Smyk1.6141111113LSep 30 · 12:30S. Baranskyi1.5311731142M. Stetsenko2.38911115113LSep 19 · 18:30O. Lipeiko1.7311811123S. Baranskyi2.006119101LSep 19 · 17:30S. Solomko1.44111187113S. Baranskyi2.6376111162
S. Skhabitskiy10
LOct 4 · 15:00V. Nechai1.731141112113S. Skhabitskiy2.0081141462WOct 4 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.38611811113M. Stetsenko1.5311811582LOct 4 · 13:00O. Mytsyk1.6181111113S. Skhabitskiy2.20118931WOct 2 · 11:35S. Skhabitskiy2.00811711113M. Khalenko1.7311811382LOct 2 · 09:35V. Mukhin4.331111113S. Skhabitskiy1.208680WOct 2 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy1.831811113P. Ostrovskyi1.8316380LOct 2 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.6351111113S. Skhabitskiy1.44118991WOct 2 · 06:05S. Skhabitskiy1.401611113S. Semenets2.7514360LOct 1 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy2.255380V. Melnykov1.571111113WSep 30 · 17:00S. Baranskyi2.2017117101S. Skhabitskiy1.6119811123
Upcoming Matches
S. Baranskyi
Nothing scheduled
S. Skhabitskiy
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