TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Stetsenko vs Dmytro Patalakha 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181188115111311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:43 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Patalakha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Stetsenko above · Dmytro Patalakha below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Dmytro Patalakha at 54.0%
57 points drawn · the score is 40 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Maksym Stetsenko 1–0 Dmytro Patalakha Dmytro Patalakha has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4354.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Patalakha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stetsenko 1447 vs Patalakha 1444
Stetsenko
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stetsenko 60% vs Patalakha 40%
Stetsenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stetsenko 40% vs Patalakha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stetsenko +1 · Patalakha -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Patalakha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Patalakha form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStetsenko 2.00 / Patalakha 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Patalakha)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276423
Stetsenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 91 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back24% 29 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Patalakha1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite61% won 26 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStetsenko1wins
AwayPatalakha0wins
Stetsenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStetsenkoPatalakhaS − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match37.033.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStetsenkoPatalakhaBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 877 vs 116 / 24952.2%46.6%458 / 877 vs 116 / 249Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PatalakhaStetsenko 2.00/Patalakha 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Patalakha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stetsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 6 · 05:50M. Stetsenko3711114113D. Patalakha33781171
M. Stetsenko10
WOct 11 · 10:20M. Stetsenko2.00138117113B. Zaika1.73111181172LOct 11 · 08:50M. Stetsenko3.509430S. Solomko1.281111113LOct 11 · 07:20M. Stetsenko3.00571151E. Populovskyi1.3611118113WOct 11 · 05:50M. Stetsenko1.531111113S. Baranskyi2.387810WOct 9 · 12:20V. Smyk1.918560M. Stetsenko1.801111113LOct 9 · 11:20E. Populovskyi1.3691111113M. Stetsenko3.00113741LOct 9 · 09:50S. Skhabitskiy2.38131112113M. Stetsenko1.531561061LOct 9 · 07:50O. Mytsyk2.5091112113M. Stetsenko1.501181071WOct 9 · 05:50O. Ovsiienko2.3811117752M. Stetsenko1.53971111113LOct 8 · 12:50M. Stetsenko3.7567111142S. Solomko1.25111197113
D. Patalakha10
LOct 11 · 10:50D. Patalakha1.80411871S. Solomko1.9111411113WOct 11 · 09:50D. Patalakha1.4491111113S. Baranskyi2.63118581LOct 11 · 08:20D. Patalakha1.80119127112B. Zaika1.915111011133WOct 11 · 06:20D. Patalakha1.44211411113E. Populovskyi2.6311711562LOct 10 · 18:30A. Martyniuk1.401111113D. Patalakha2.758790WOct 10 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.831241441D. Patalakha1.83101116113WOct 10 · 16:00B. Zaika1.67126771D. Patalakha2.10101111113LOct 10 · 14:00E. Populovskyi2.6311126103D. Patalakha1.447101181LOct 10 · 12:00O. Osadchyi1.441211113D. Patalakha2.6310820LSep 27 · 10:48D. Patalakha3.40811111142O. Tymofeev1.30111337113
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