TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Wasik vs Ladislav Dobias 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119811119811611
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:12 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Wasik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Wasik above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 95 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Petr Wasik at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Petr Wasik 10–14 Ladislav Dobias Petr Wasik has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:1254.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-14 in 24
Dobias
Correct
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wasik 1771 vs Dobias 1704
Wasik
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wasik 40% vs Dobias 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wasik 50% vs Dobias 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wasik +1 · Dobias +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wasik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWasik 1.833 / Dobias 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wasik)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13245323
Wasik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Dobias1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWasik4wins
AwayDobias6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWasik50%3 of 6
AwayDobias75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wasik6Dobias4n = 10Wasik took 6 of 10
S2Wasik2Dobias8n = 10Dobias took 8 of 10
S3Wasik6Dobias4n = 10Wasik took 6 of 10
S4Wasik4Dobias4n = 8split evenly
S5Wasik2Dobias4n = 6Dobias took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricWasikDobiasW − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.342.0−1.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWasikDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 148 vs 444 / 80559.5%55.2%88 / 148 vs 444 / 805Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.141.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WasikWasik 1.83/Dobias 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wasik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 07:15P. Wasik4411811862L. Dobias51911911113
WSep 15 · 05:45P. Wasik3911611113L. Dobias27411841
LSep 10 · 06:15P. Wasik2351170L. Dobias351113113
WAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik4011711113L. Dobias32711681
LAug 26 · 12:13P. Wasik43115111062L. Dobias50911712113
LAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik248880L. Dobias331111113
LAug 21 · 12:23P. Wasik4311612862L. Dobias518111011113
WAug 21 · 11:15P. Wasik51913511133L. Dobias521111118112
WAug 14 · 08:19P. Wasik521191110113L. Dobias4661181292
LAug 14 · 07:15P. Wasik4491171162L. Dobias43117113113
P. Wasik10
WOct 5 · 06:15P. Wasik1.401111113R. Pisa2.753950LOct 5 · 05:15P. Wasik1.501151031V. Burylov2.5061112113LSep 24 · 08:19P. Wasik1.9184121232T. Hlavacek1.8011111010113WSep 24 · 07:15T. Hlavacek1.67681471P. Wasik2.10111112113LSep 24 · 06:45P. Wasik1.731112791M. Bouska2.0081411113LSep 24 · 05:45P. Wasik1.36121112692M. Stibor3.001461011113WSep 21 · 08:48V. Burylov2.7511581192P. Wasik1.40311119113WSep 21 · 07:15P. Wasik1.4411119113O. Kaderabek2.63271141LSep 21 · 06:15P. Wasik1.44914111192V. Burylov2.63111679113WSep 21 · 05:15P. Wasik1.831111113L. Svoboda1.835460
L. Dobias10
WOct 5 · 06:45L. Dobias1.831111113V. Burylov1.838870LOct 5 · 05:45L. Dobias1.57129111062R. Pisa2.251011412113LOct 4 · 08:43A. Snr2.10811114123L. Dobias1.67114911102WOct 4 · 07:15L. Dobias1.67116119113M. Makara2.1081171182LOct 4 · 06:15L. Dobias1.5057120A. Snr2.501111143WOct 4 · 05:15L. Dobias1.80121311113L. Rulc1.911411691WOct 3 · 20:54L. Dobias1.8091112113L. Rulc1.911131081WOct 3 · 19:45V. Burylov1.8311891292L. Dobias1.838111110113WOct 3 · 18:45L. Rulc2.0012891272L. Dobias1.7310111110113LOct 3 · 17:15M. Kocvara2.3813912113L. Dobias1.5311111091
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