TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Wasik vs Volodymyr Burylov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1165111012311––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:05 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timePetr Wasik to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Wasik above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 69 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Petr Wasik at 60.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Petr Wasik 7–5 Volodymyr Burylov Volodymyr Burylov has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:0560.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 6.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Wasik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Wasik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wasik 1788 vs Burylov 1679
Wasik
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wasik 40% vs Burylov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wasik 60% vs Burylov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wasik -1 · Burylov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Wasik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wasik form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWasik 1.50 / Burylov 2.50
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Wasik)-6.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245210
Wasik1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 24) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 47 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it81% 33 of 41
Burylov2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog55% won 51 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back34% 15 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back23% 5 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWasik5wins
AwayBurylov5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWasik100%4 of 4
AwayBurylov83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wasik4Burylov6n = 10Burylov took 6 of 10
S2Wasik5Burylov5n = 10split evenly
S3Wasik7Burylov3n = 10Wasik took 7 of 10
S4Wasik3Burylov3n = 6split evenly
S5Wasik2Burylov3n = 5Burylov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricWasikBurylovW − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.337.9+2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWasikBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 145 vs 221 / 44760%49.4%87 / 145 vs 221 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WasikWasik 1.50/Burylov 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Wasik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Burylov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 08:48P. Wasik45311119113V. Burylov4411581192
LSep 21 · 06:15P. Wasik54914111192V. Burylov54111679113
WAug 28 · 08:53P. Wasik341211113V. Burylov2510960
LAug 28 · 05:15P. Wasik30910110V. Burylov361112133
WAug 21 · 09:15P. Wasik501171011113V. Burylov4581112682
WJul 3 · 06:15P. Wasik45111211113V. Burylov27514261
LMay 29 · 08:43P. Wasik43811113102V. Burylov46114811123
WMay 29 · 05:15P. Wasik331111113V. Burylov197840
LFeb 9 · 09:18P. Wasik2713770V. Burylov371511113
LFeb 9 · 06:15P. Wasik4281111662V. Burylov46117611113
P. Wasik10
WOct 5 · 06:15P. Wasik1.401111113R. Pisa2.753950LSep 24 · 08:19P. Wasik1.9184121232T. Hlavacek1.8011111010113WSep 24 · 07:15T. Hlavacek1.67681471P. Wasik2.10111112113LSep 24 · 06:45P. Wasik1.731112791M. Bouska2.0081411113LSep 24 · 05:45P. Wasik1.36121112692M. Stibor3.001461011113WSep 21 · 08:48V. Burylov2.7511581192P. Wasik1.40311119113WSep 21 · 07:15P. Wasik1.4411119113O. Kaderabek2.63271141LSep 21 · 06:15P. Wasik1.44914111192V. Burylov2.63111679113WSep 21 · 05:15P. Wasik1.831111113L. Svoboda1.835460WSep 15 · 08:48O. Kaderabek2.75111113592P. Wasik1.40691511113
V. Burylov10
WOct 4 · 16:14V. Burylov2.101111107113M. Zelinka1.6768121142LOct 4 · 15:45M. Makara1.8311512113V. Burylov1.839111071LOct 4 · 14:45M. Zelinka1.9111119123V. Burylov1.806711101WOct 4 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.8313101091V. Burylov1.83111212113LOct 3 · 20:23V. Burylov1.731313241M. Kocvara2.00151111113LOct 3 · 19:45V. Burylov1.8311891292L. Dobias1.838111110113WOct 3 · 18:15M. Kocvara1.806240V. Burylov1.911111113LOct 3 · 17:45L. Rulc2.101112113V. Burylov1.6791070LSep 21 · 08:48V. Burylov2.7511581192P. Wasik1.40311119113WSep 21 · 06:15P. Wasik1.44914111192V. Burylov2.63111679113
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