TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Rulc vs Volodymyr Burylov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191210117––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:44 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Burylov to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Rulc above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 60 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 57.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Rulc 2–4 Volodymyr Burylov Lukas Rulc has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Burylov beat Rulc 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4457.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Burylov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Burylov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rulc 1664 vs Burylov 1718
Burylov
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rulc 60% vs Burylov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rulc 60% vs Burylov 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rulc +1 · Burylov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Burylov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRulc 2.10 / Burylov 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Burylov)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234422
Rulc2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 52 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Burylov1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite41% won 43 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it60% 32 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRulc2wins
AwayBurylov4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderBurylov leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRulc25%1 of 4
AwayBurylovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rulc4Burylov2n = 6Rulc took 4 of 6
S2Rulc3Burylov3n = 6split evenly
S3Rulc3Burylov3n = 6split evenly
S4Rulc1Burylov4n = 5Burylov took 4 of 5
S5Rulc1Burylov2n = 3Burylov took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricRulcBurylovR − BBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match42.540.5+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRulcBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 695 vs 218 / 43950.1%49.7%348 / 695 vs 218 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BurylovRulc 2.10/Burylov 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Burylov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 3 · 11:45L. Rulc36117991V. Burylov4181111113
LAug 19 · 05:15L. Rulc351091151V. Burylov4312119113
LAug 1 · 08:00L. Rulc5112148982V. Burylov5510121111113
WJul 5 · 06:15L. Rulc51911119113V. Burylov4211491172
WJul 4 · 15:15L. Rulc331111113V. Burylov156450
LMay 19 · 05:45L. Rulc49111171192V. Burylov47613116113
L. Rulc10
WOct 3 · 12:14L. Rulc2.201412118123L. Dobias1.611214911102LOct 3 · 11:45V. Burylov1.8081111113L. Rulc1.91117991WOct 3 · 10:45L. Dobias1.671211118132L. Rulc2.10149711153LOct 3 · 09:15R. Pisa1.8011711113L. Rulc1.91511791WOct 1 · 16:43M. Vyskocil1.671511581L. Rulc2.1017811113LOct 1 · 15:45L. Rulc1.57811871M. Vyskocil2.2511911113WOct 1 · 14:15O. Mezera2.75121550L. Rulc1.401417113WOct 1 · 13:45J. Krames Sr1.6111711982L. Rulc2.20611711113LSep 30 · 16:44L. Rulc1.80831141S. Rejent1.9111118113WSep 30 · 15:45S. Rejent2.206111111102L. Rulc1.61119135123
V. Burylov10
WOct 3 · 18:15M. Kocvara1.806240V. Burylov1.911111113WOct 3 · 12:44V. Burylov1.731111923R. Pisa2.00641101WOct 3 · 11:45V. Burylov1.8081111113L. Rulc1.91117991LOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192WOct 3 · 09:45L. Dobias1.839115111V. Burylov1.8311411133LSep 30 · 20:39V. Burylov1.731081281V. Grubr2.00121110113LSep 30 · 19:45R. Pisa2.101111106113V. Burylov1.6797121192WSep 30 · 18:45L. Dobias1.80612361V. Burylov1.91111011113WSep 30 · 17:15V. Grubr2.0051111282V. Burylov1.73116711113WSep 30 · 12:45L. Dobias1.7371360V. Burylov2.001115113
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