TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Burylov vs Lukas Rulc 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811117119119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Burylov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Burylov above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Burylov 3–2 Lukas Rulc Lukas Rulc has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Burylov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burylov 1696 vs Rulc 1663
Burylov
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burylov 40% vs Rulc 60%
Rulc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burylov 60% vs Rulc 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Burylov -1 · Rulc +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Burylov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burylov form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurylov 1.80 / Rulc 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Burylov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234351
Burylov1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite41% won 43 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it60% 32 of 53
Rulc1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 52 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBurylov3wins
AwayRulc2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderBurylov leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurylovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRulc33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burylov2Rulc3n = 5Rulc took 3 of 5
S2Burylov2Rulc3n = 5Rulc took 3 of 5
S3Burylov2Rulc3n = 5Rulc took 3 of 5
S4Burylov3Rulc1n = 4Burylov took 3 of 4
S5Burylov2Rulc1n = 3Burylov took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricBurylovRulcB − RBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match40.443.8−3.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurylovRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 437 vs 347 / 69349.4%50.1%216 / 437 vs 347 / 693Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BurylovBurylov 1.80/Rulc 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Burylov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Burylov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 19 · 05:15V. Burylov4312119113L. Rulc351091151
WAug 1 · 08:00V. Burylov5510121111113L. Rulc5112148982
LJul 5 · 06:15V. Burylov4211491172L. Rulc51911119113
LJul 4 · 15:15V. Burylov156450L. Rulc331111113
WMay 19 · 05:45V. Burylov47613116113L. Rulc49111171192
V. Burylov10
LOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192WOct 3 · 09:45L. Dobias1.839115111V. Burylov1.8311411133LSep 30 · 20:39V. Burylov1.731081281V. Grubr2.00121110113LSep 30 · 19:45R. Pisa2.101111106113V. Burylov1.6797121192WSep 30 · 18:45L. Dobias1.80612361V. Burylov1.91111011113WSep 30 · 17:15V. Grubr2.0051111282V. Burylov1.73116711113WSep 30 · 12:45L. Dobias1.7371360V. Burylov2.001115113WSep 30 · 11:15L. Veigl2.00981111102V. Burylov1.73111196123LSep 30 · 10:45V. Burylov2.001191631M. Stibor1.7381118113WSep 30 · 09:45V. Burylov1.911111113L. Dobias1.807570
L. Rulc10
WOct 3 · 12:14L. Rulc2.201412118123L. Dobias1.611214911102WOct 3 · 10:45L. Dobias1.671211118132L. Rulc2.10149711153LOct 3 · 09:15R. Pisa1.8011711113L. Rulc1.91511791WOct 1 · 16:43M. Vyskocil1.671511581L. Rulc2.1017811113LOct 1 · 15:45L. Rulc1.57811871M. Vyskocil2.2511911113WOct 1 · 14:15O. Mezera2.75121550L. Rulc1.401417113WOct 1 · 13:45J. Krames Sr1.6111711982L. Rulc2.20611711113LSep 30 · 16:44L. Rulc1.80831141S. Rejent1.9111118113WSep 30 · 15:45S. Rejent2.206111111102L. Rulc1.61119135123LSep 30 · 14:45L. Heinzl1.611211123L. Rulc2.20107100
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