TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Rulc vs Marek Vyskocil 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119811711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:40 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Rulc above · Marek Vyskocil below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Lukas Rulc at 58.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Rulc 2–2 Marek Vyskocil Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4058.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rulc
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rulc 1659 vs Vyskocil 1678
Vyskocil
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rulc 60% vs Vyskocil 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rulc 40% vs Vyskocil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rulc +2 · Vyskocil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Rulc) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vyskocil form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRulc 1.571 / Vyskocil 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Rulc)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223732
Rulc1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 91 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it67% 63 of 94
Vyskocil2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 25 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back32% 9 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back25% 3 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeRulc2wins
AwayVyskocil2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rulc2Vyskocil2n = 4split evenly
S2Rulc4Vyskocil0n = 4Rulc took 4 of 4
S3Rulc1Vyskocil3n = 4Vyskocil took 3 of 4
S4Rulc2Vyskocil1n = 3Rulc took 2 of 3
S5Rulc1Vyskocil2n = 3Vyskocil took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricRulcVyskocilR − VBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match41.541.2+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRulcVyskocilBasisWin rate · lifetime345 / 689 vs 225 / 41850.1%53.8%345 / 689 vs 225 / 418Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RulcRulc 1.57/Vyskocil 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vyskocil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 14 · 05:15L. Rulc4411117692M. Vyskocil48781111113
LAug 31 · 09:45L. Rulc44111181132M. Vyskocil48139114113
WAug 14 · 10:15L. Rulc341112113M. Vyskocil2351080
WJan 21 · 12:45L. Rulc44811311113M. Vyskocil4611711892
L. Rulc10
WOct 1 · 14:15O. Mezera2.75121550L. Rulc1.401417113WOct 1 · 13:45J. Krames Sr1.6111711982L. Rulc2.20611711113LSep 30 · 16:44L. Rulc1.80831141S. Rejent1.9111118113WSep 30 · 15:45S. Rejent2.206111111102L. Rulc1.61119135123LSep 30 · 14:45L. Heinzl1.611211123L. Rulc2.20107100LSep 30 · 13:15M. Myler2.2011813113L. Rulc1.619111191LSep 29 · 12:38L. Dobias1.731411143L. Rulc2.00129120LSep 29 · 11:30L. Rulc1.91101490M. Makara1.801216113WSep 29 · 10:30L. Rulc2.10118115113L. Dobias1.6781171162LSep 29 · 09:30L. Rulc1.6111611792T. Liska2.20711411113
M. Vyskocil10
LOct 1 · 14:45J. Krames Sr1.5011117113M. Vyskocil2.50371171WOct 1 · 13:15O. Mezera2.2047111192M. Vyskocil1.61111158113WOct 1 · 08:14J. Senk1.8311711822M. Vyskocil1.83911711113LOct 1 · 07:15M. Vyskocil1.80811861M. Ullman1.9111711113WOct 1 · 06:15M. Vyskocil1.53101111113T. Liska2.38127861LOct 1 · 05:15M. Vyskocil1.8399111132J. Senk1.83111148113LSep 24 · 16:24O. Mezera2.2011911123M. Vyskocil1.617113101WSep 24 · 15:15M. Vyskocil1.57111111113O. Mezera2.25713691LSep 24 · 14:15M. Vyskocil1.801111681M. Kocvara1.9113411113LSep 24 · 13:15M. Vyskocil2.631171111102L. Veigl1.44411138123
Upcoming Matches
L. Rulc
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M. Vyskocil
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