TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Veigl vs Volodymyr Burylov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9118111191161012
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Burylov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 98 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 5–6 Volodymyr Burylov Lukas Veigl has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Burylov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1752 vs Burylov 1679
Veigl
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 60% vs Burylov 40%
Veigl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 50% vs Burylov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl -1 · Burylov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Burylov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burylov form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 2.00 / Burylov 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Burylov)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218809
Veigl2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 42 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Burylov1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite41% won 41 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it59% 30 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl5wins
AwayBurylov5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl100%3 of 3
AwayBurylov71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl3Burylov7n = 10Burylov took 7 of 10
S2Veigl2Burylov8n = 10Burylov took 8 of 10
S3Veigl6Burylov4n = 10Veigl took 6 of 10
S4Veigl5Burylov2n = 7Veigl took 5 of 7
S5Veigl3Burylov1n = 4Veigl took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglBurylovV − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.741.9−1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 547 vs 214 / 43251.7%49.5%283 / 547 vs 214 / 432Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BurylovVeigl 2.00/Burylov 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Burylov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Burylov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 14:45L. Veigl46116611123V. Burylov49911118102
LSep 19 · 20:48L. Veigl4111111271V. Burylov47131310113
WSep 19 · 17:45L. Veigl507101111113V. Burylov4311126682
WJul 31 · 06:15L. Veigl361113123V. Burylov30911100
WMar 2 · 07:45L. Veigl4591111143V. Burylov391179121
LFeb 16 · 09:20L. Veigl431091771V. Burylov49121115113
WFeb 16 · 07:45L. Veigl51119911113V. Burylov4791111882
LFeb 2 · 09:50L. Veigl2468100V. Burylov341111123
LFeb 2 · 08:45L. Veigl4796121192V. Burylov471111104113
LOct 6 · 17:15L. Veigl2410590V. Burylov341211113
L. Veigl10
LSep 30 · 10:15L. Veigl2.0058150L. Dobias1.731111173WSep 30 · 09:15L. Veigl2.001111113M. Stibor1.739960WSep 29 · 12:48L. Veigl2.20101111113M. Stibor1.61125771LSep 29 · 11:45M. Stibor1.73114116113L. Veigl2.0061131152WSep 29 · 10:45M. Myler2.259711111L. Veigl1.5711117133WSep 29 · 09:15J. Rochowanski1.8081151172L. Veigl1.91118119113WSep 28 · 12:18J. Krames Sr1.7311711111L. Veigl2.0091113133LSep 28 · 11:15D. Gasparovic1.30591111113L. Veigl3.4011119992LSep 28 · 10:45L. Veigl2.101881151J. Krames Sr1.6720116113LSep 28 · 09:45L. Veigl2.3812101181M. Zelinka1.5314129113
V. Burylov10
LSep 30 · 10:45V. Burylov2.001191631M. Stibor1.7381118113WSep 30 · 09:45V. Burylov1.911111113L. Dobias1.807570LSep 23 · 08:21M. Makara3.25111111113V. Burylov1.33138781LSep 23 · 07:15V. Burylov1.8311380M. Zelinka1.831311113LSep 23 · 06:15V. Burylov1.91811111242L. Dobias1.80117914113WSep 23 · 05:15V. Burylov1.831111113M. Makara1.839810WSep 22 · 20:53V. Burylov1.5771111113A. Radkovsky2.25118471WSep 22 · 19:45A. Radkovsky2.1011511772V. Burylov1.67511811113LSep 22 · 18:45J. Chalupa1.801111113V. Burylov1.918380LSep 22 · 17:15V. Grubr2.0071111113V. Burylov1.73117581
Upcoming Matches
L. Veigl
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V. Burylov
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