TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Veigl vs Michal Stibor 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:09 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 57 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Michal Stibor at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 9–7 Michal Stibor Michal Stibor has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:0954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stibor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Veigl
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1757 vs Stibor 1712
Veigl
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 80% vs Stibor 40%
Veigl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 60% vs Stibor 40%
Veigl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl +1 · Stibor -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stibor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stibor form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 2.00 / Stibor 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stibor)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218849
Veigl2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 42 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Stibor1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 62 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl5wins
AwayStibor5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl33.3%1 of 3
AwayStibor42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl3Stibor7n = 10Stibor took 7 of 10
S2Veigl7Stibor3n = 10Veigl took 7 of 10
S3Veigl5Stibor5n = 10split evenly
S4Veigl3Stibor6n = 9Stibor took 6 of 9
S5Veigl4Stibor3n = 7Veigl took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglStiborV − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.242.4−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 545 vs 178 / 33651.7%53%282 / 545 vs 178 / 336Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StiborVeigl 2.00/Stibor 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 12:48L. Veigl43101111113M. Stibor31125771
LSep 29 · 11:45L. Veigl3661131152M. Stibor43114116113
WSep 17 · 05:15L. Veigl571112119143M. Stibor50714611122
WSep 16 · 06:15L. Veigl52911129113M. Stibor47116101192
LJul 29 · 08:28L. Veigl4041111682M. Stibor46115811113
LJul 29 · 07:30L. Veigl341171151M. Stibor4491113113
WJul 21 · 08:14L. Veigl45411811113M. Stibor3711611452
LJul 21 · 07:15L. Veigl229850M. Stibor331111113
LFeb 10 · 08:45L. Veigl45111171152M. Stibor50871113113
WFeb 9 · 11:30L. Veigl48611119113M. Stibor4311781162
L. Veigl10
LSep 30 · 10:15L. Veigl2.0058150L. Dobias1.731111173WSep 29 · 12:48L. Veigl2.20101111113M. Stibor1.61125771LSep 29 · 11:45M. Stibor1.73114116113L. Veigl2.0061131152WSep 29 · 10:45M. Myler2.259711111L. Veigl1.5711117133WSep 29 · 09:15J. Rochowanski1.8081151172L. Veigl1.91118119113WSep 28 · 12:18J. Krames Sr1.7311711111L. Veigl2.0091113133LSep 28 · 11:15D. Gasparovic1.30591111113L. Veigl3.4011119992LSep 28 · 10:45L. Veigl2.101881151J. Krames Sr1.6720116113LSep 28 · 09:45L. Veigl2.3812101181M. Zelinka1.5314129113WSep 27 · 20:45L. Veigl1.7391111113M. Ullman2.00116681
M. Stibor10
LSep 29 · 12:48L. Veigl2.20101111113M. Stibor1.61125771WSep 29 · 11:45M. Stibor1.73114116113L. Veigl2.0061131152LSep 29 · 10:15J. Rochowanski2.0011511113M. Stibor1.73811841WSep 29 · 09:45M. Myler2.387740M. Stibor1.531111113LSep 24 · 08:50M. Bouska1.4081111113M. Stibor2.75118281LSep 24 · 07:45M. Stibor2.206870M. Bouska1.611111113WSep 24 · 06:15T. Hlavacek1.301011116122M. Stibor3.40129611143WSep 24 · 05:45P. Wasik1.36121112692M. Stibor3.001461011113LSep 21 · 12:21M. Zelinka1.331111113M. Stibor3.256860LSep 21 · 11:15M. Stibor1.671511911102L. Adam2.10179119123
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