TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Veigl vs Ladislav Dobias 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5118111517––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 15-17
Point 67 set 3, 15-17 · our read held Ladislav Dobias at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 9–15 Ladislav Dobias Lukas Veigl has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:0554.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Dobias
Correct
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1769 vs Dobias 1699
Veigl
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 80% vs Dobias 40%
Veigl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 60% vs Dobias 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl +2 · Dobias -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dobias) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 2.00 / Dobias 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dobias)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218837
Veigl2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 42 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Dobias1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 193 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it80% 139 of 174
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl4wins
AwayDobias6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl60%3 of 5
AwayDobias80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl5Dobias5n = 10split evenly
S2Veigl5Dobias5n = 10split evenly
S3Veigl4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S4Veigl5Dobias5n = 10split evenly
S5Veigl3Dobias4n = 7Dobias took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglDobiasV − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.845.6−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 546 vs 433 / 78351.8%55.3%283 / 546 vs 433 / 783Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.641.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasVeigl 2.00/Dobias 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 08:48L. Veigl45109111142L. Dobias46121175113
LSep 17 · 07:45L. Veigl366114151L. Dobias4311411173
LJul 31 · 07:15L. Veigl47711161032L. Dobias511131412113
WJul 22 · 07:00L. Veigl541310911113L. Dobias51111211892
LJul 21 · 06:45L. Veigl3811741152L. Dobias49911117113
WJul 13 · 10:45L. Veigl51911119113L. Dobias3711481132
LJul 10 · 12:43L. Veigl33119671L. Dobias4291111113
WJul 10 · 10:45L. Veigl531110811133L. Dobias49712118112
LMay 10 · 20:14L. Veigl4751115972L. Dobias491131311113
WMay 10 · 19:15L. Veigl4411139113L. Dobias399111181
L. Veigl10
WSep 30 · 09:15L. Veigl2.001111113M. Stibor1.739960WSep 29 · 12:48L. Veigl2.20101111113M. Stibor1.61125771LSep 29 · 11:45M. Stibor1.73114116113L. Veigl2.0061131152WSep 29 · 10:45M. Myler2.259711111L. Veigl1.5711117133WSep 29 · 09:15J. Rochowanski1.8081151172L. Veigl1.91118119113WSep 28 · 12:18J. Krames Sr1.7311711111L. Veigl2.0091113133LSep 28 · 11:15D. Gasparovic1.30591111113L. Veigl3.4011119992LSep 28 · 10:45L. Veigl2.101881151J. Krames Sr1.6720116113LSep 28 · 09:45L. Veigl2.3812101181M. Zelinka1.5314129113WSep 27 · 20:45L. Veigl1.7391111113M. Ullman2.00116681
L. Dobias10
LSep 30 · 09:45V. Burylov1.911111113L. Dobias1.807570WSep 29 · 12:38L. Dobias1.731411143L. Rulc2.00129120LSep 29 · 12:00L. Dobias1.576990T. Liska2.251111113LSep 29 · 10:30L. Rulc2.10118115113L. Dobias1.6781171162WSep 29 · 10:00M. Makara2.2081111692L. Dobias1.61119911113WSep 26 · 20:49L. Dobias1.61115119113M. Makara2.2081191172LSep 26 · 19:45M. Makara2.101011911113L. Dobias1.6712811682WSep 26 · 18:45J. Chalupa1.8311117992L. Dobias1.83881111113LSep 26 · 17:15J. Krames Sr1.8391113113L. Dobias1.831141181WSep 26 · 12:44M. Zelinka2.2598111162L. Dobias1.5711113893
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