TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Veigl vs Michal Stibor 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012115117117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7
74 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 8–7 Michal Stibor Michal Stibor has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Stibor beat Veigl 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stibor form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 2.20 / Stibor 1.61
Setka Cup · #13216650
Veigl2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 40 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Stibor1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 60 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it82% 40 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl4wins
AwayStibor6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderStibor leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl33.3%1 of 3
AwayStibor57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl3Stibor7n = 10Stibor took 7 of 10
S2Veigl7Stibor3n = 10Veigl took 7 of 10
S3Veigl4Stibor6n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S4Veigl2Stibor7n = 9Stibor took 7 of 9
S5Veigl4Stibor3n = 7Veigl took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglStiborV − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.443.6−2.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 544 vs 178 / 33551.7%53.1%281 / 544 vs 178 / 335Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StiborVeigl 2.20/Stibor 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–1
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 11:45L. Veigl3661131152M. Stibor43114116113
WSep 17 · 05:15L. Veigl571112119143M. Stibor50714611122
WSep 16 · 06:15L. Veigl52911129113M. Stibor47116101192
LJul 29 · 08:28L. Veigl4041111682M. Stibor46115811113
LJul 29 · 07:30L. Veigl341171151M. Stibor4491113113
WJul 21 · 08:14L. Veigl45411811113M. Stibor3711611452
LJul 21 · 07:15L. Veigl229850M. Stibor331111113
LFeb 10 · 08:45L. Veigl45111171152M. Stibor50871113113
WFeb 9 · 11:30L. Veigl48611119113M. Stibor4311781162
LJan 8 · 09:12L. Veigl351011951M. Stibor4312911113
L. Veigl10
LSep 29 · 11:45M. Stibor1.73114116113L. Veigl2.0061131152WSep 29 · 10:45M. Myler2.259711111L. Veigl1.5711117133WSep 29 · 09:15J. Rochowanski1.8081151172L. Veigl1.91118119113WSep 28 · 12:18J. Krames Sr1.7311711111L. Veigl2.0091113133LSep 28 · 11:15D. Gasparovic1.30591111113L. Veigl3.4011119992LSep 28 · 10:45L. Veigl2.101881151J. Krames Sr1.6720116113LSep 28 · 09:45L. Veigl2.3812101181M. Zelinka1.5314129113WSep 27 · 20:45L. Veigl1.7391111113M. Ullman2.00116681WSep 27 · 19:45L. Veigl1.611111113R. Pisa2.209330LSep 27 · 18:15M. Ullman1.9111911173L. Veigl1.807118151
M. Stibor10
WSep 29 · 11:45M. Stibor1.73114116113L. Veigl2.0061131152LSep 29 · 10:15J. Rochowanski2.0011511113M. Stibor1.73811841WSep 29 · 09:45M. Myler2.387740M. Stibor1.531111113LSep 24 · 08:50M. Bouska1.4081111113M. Stibor2.75118281LSep 24 · 07:45M. Stibor2.206870M. Bouska1.611111113WSep 24 · 06:15T. Hlavacek1.301011116122M. Stibor3.40129611143WSep 24 · 05:45P. Wasik1.36121112692M. Stibor3.001461011113LSep 21 · 12:21M. Zelinka1.331111113M. Stibor3.256860LSep 21 · 11:15M. Stibor1.671511911102L. Adam2.10179119123LSep 21 · 10:15M. Stibor1.739580R. Pisa2.001111113
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