TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Hlavacek vs Michal Stibor 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Tomas Hlavacek
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121191166111214
Michal Stibor
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Hlavacek to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Hlavacek above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 102 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Tomas Hlavacek at 72.3%
102 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hlavacek 3–2 Michal Stibor Michal Stibor has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Hlavacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hlavacek 1876 vs Stibor 1725
Hlavacek
Wrong
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hlavacek 80% vs Stibor 40%
Hlavacek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hlavacek 80% vs Stibor 30%
Hlavacek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hlavacek -1 · Stibor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Hlavacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stibor form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHlavacek 1.30 / Stibor 3.40
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Hlavacek)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13185724
Hlavacek1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite75% won 38 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Stibor3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 26 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHlavacek3wins
AwayStibor2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderHlavacek leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHlavacek100%3 of 3
AwayStiborn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hlavacek3Stibor2n = 5Hlavacek took 3 of 5
S2Hlavacek2Stibor3n = 5Stibor took 3 of 5
S3Hlavacek4Stibor1n = 5Hlavacek took 4 of 5
S4Hlavacek3Stibor1n = 4Hlavacek took 3 of 4
S5Hlavacek1Stibor2n = 3Stibor took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricHlavacekStiborH − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match43.840.0+3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHlavacekStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 85 vs 177 / 33568.2%52.8%58 / 85 vs 177 / 335Avg sets wonper match2.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match42.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HlavacekHlavacek 1.30/Stibor 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.7%
Hlavacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 24 · 06:15T. Hlavacek501011116122M. Stibor52129611143
WJul 8 · 05:15T. Hlavacek48117811113M. Stibor3971111282
LApr 29 · 13:13T. Hlavacek42410111162M. Stibor49111278113
WApr 29 · 09:15T. Hlavacek4511716113M. Stibor368111431
WApr 8 · 10:45T. Hlavacek341211113M. Stibor2410590
T. Hlavacek10
LSep 24 · 07:15T. Hlavacek1.67681471P. Wasik2.10111112113LSep 24 · 05:15T. Hlavacek1.5081111882M. Bouska2.50119911113WAug 20 · 16:44R. Debnar3.001161617172T. Hlavacek1.368111815193WAug 20 · 15:15S. Rejent3.4011118432T. Hlavacek1.30651111113WAug 20 · 14:45T. Hlavacek1.3612119113L. Dobias3.001071191WAug 20 · 13:45T. Hlavacek1.401112113R. Debnar2.7541050LJul 15 · 08:54V. Burylov3.00811811113T. Hlavacek1.3611811882WJul 15 · 07:15M. Bouska2.38101191192T. Hlavacek1.53125118113WJul 15 · 06:45T. Hlavacek1.40111110113V. Burylov2.75991241WJul 15 · 05:45T. Hlavacek1.369111111113L. Dobias3.0011513782
M. Stibor10
LSep 24 · 07:45M. Stibor2.206870M. Bouska1.611111113WSep 24 · 05:45P. Wasik1.36121112692M. Stibor3.001461011113LSep 21 · 12:21M. Zelinka1.331111113M. Stibor3.256860LSep 21 · 11:15M. Stibor1.671511911102L. Adam2.10179119123LSep 21 · 10:15M. Stibor1.739580R. Pisa2.001111113WSep 21 · 09:15M. Stibor2.251111113M. Zelinka1.575780WSep 17 · 08:18M. Bouska1.53811371M. Stibor2.3811911113LSep 17 · 07:15M. Stibor1.9197110M. Bouska1.801111133LSep 17 · 06:15M. Stibor2.50811681L. Dobias1.5011711113LSep 17 · 05:15M. Stibor1.73714611122L. Veigl2.001112119143
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