TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Burylov vs Michal Stibor 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1189111618311––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:35 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Burylov above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 16-18
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 87 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Michal Stibor at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Burylov 1–2 Michal Stibor Volodymyr Burylov has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3554.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stibor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burylov 1679 vs Stibor 1700
Stibor
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burylov 40% vs Stibor 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burylov 40% vs Stibor 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Burylov +1 · Stibor -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stibor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stibor form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurylov 2.00 / Stibor 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stibor)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218998
Burylov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 46 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back34% 15 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back23% 5 of 22
Stibor1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 62 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBurylov1wins
AwayStibor2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderStibor leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burylov1Stibor2n = 3Stibor took 2 of 3
S2Burylov1Stibor2n = 3Stibor took 2 of 3
S3Burylov2Stibor1n = 3Burylov took 2 of 3
S4Burylov1Stibor2n = 3Stibor took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBurylovStiborB − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match38.343.3−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurylovStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 432 vs 177 / 33349.5%53.2%214 / 432 vs 177 / 333Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StiborBurylov 2.00/Stibor 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 8 · 08:43V. Burylov4697111182M. Stibor45111157113
LJul 8 · 07:45V. Burylov261111131M. Stibor4381311113
WJul 7 · 07:45V. Burylov43511133113M. Stibor42116111132
V. Burylov10
WSep 30 · 11:15L. Veigl2.00981111102V. Burylov1.73111196123WSep 30 · 09:45V. Burylov1.911111113L. Dobias1.807570LSep 23 · 08:21M. Makara3.25111111113V. Burylov1.33138781LSep 23 · 07:15V. Burylov1.8311380M. Zelinka1.831311113LSep 23 · 06:15V. Burylov1.91811111242L. Dobias1.80117914113WSep 23 · 05:15V. Burylov1.831111113M. Makara1.839810WSep 22 · 20:53V. Burylov1.5771111113A. Radkovsky2.25118471WSep 22 · 19:45A. Radkovsky2.1011511772V. Burylov1.67511811113LSep 22 · 18:45J. Chalupa1.801111113V. Burylov1.918380LSep 22 · 17:15V. Grubr2.0071111113V. Burylov1.73117581
M. Stibor10
LSep 30 · 09:15L. Veigl2.001111113M. Stibor1.739960LSep 29 · 12:48L. Veigl2.20101111113M. Stibor1.61125771WSep 29 · 11:45M. Stibor1.73114116113L. Veigl2.0061131152LSep 29 · 10:15J. Rochowanski2.0011511113M. Stibor1.73811841WSep 29 · 09:45M. Myler2.387740M. Stibor1.531111113LSep 24 · 08:50M. Bouska1.4081111113M. Stibor2.75118281LSep 24 · 07:45M. Stibor2.206870M. Bouska1.611111113WSep 24 · 06:15T. Hlavacek1.301011116122M. Stibor3.40129611143WSep 24 · 05:45P. Wasik1.36121112692M. Stibor3.001461011113LSep 21 · 12:21M. Zelinka1.331111113M. Stibor3.256860
Upcoming Matches
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