TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Radovan Pisa vs Volodymyr Burylov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191171012611119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Burylov to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 56.2%
97 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 7–9 Volodymyr Burylov Radovan Pisa has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:4356.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Burylov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Burylov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1660 vs Burylov 1718
Burylov
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 20% vs Burylov 80%
Burylov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 30% vs Burylov 60%
Burylov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa -2 · Burylov +4
Burylov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Burylov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burylov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 2.10 / Burylov 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Burylov)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219280
Pisa2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 81 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back29% 28 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 55
Burylov1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite41% won 41 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it59% 30 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePisa4wins
AwayBurylov6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBurylov leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisa75%3 of 4
AwayBurylov83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa4Burylov6n = 10Burylov took 6 of 10
S2Pisa6Burylov4n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S3Pisa4Burylov6n = 10Burylov took 6 of 10
S4Pisa4Burylov4n = 8split evenly
S5Pisa1Burylov2n = 3Burylov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPisaBurylovP − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.539.3−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime378 / 785 vs 215 / 43348.2%49.7%378 / 785 vs 215 / 433Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BurylovPisa 2.10/Burylov 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Burylov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 05:15R. Pisa3531110111V. Burylov4411812133
LAug 30 · 05:45R. Pisa4341111982V. Burylov41114411113
WAug 29 · 11:45R. Pisa4011117113V. Burylov37891191
LJul 26 · 09:15R. Pisa4698111172V. Burylov47111177113
WJul 25 · 12:23R. Pisa351311113V. Burylov2911990
LJul 25 · 09:45R. Pisa391177141V. Burylov4461111163
LJul 11 · 17:45R. Pisa167540V. Burylov331111113
LJul 9 · 13:30R. Pisa26411471V. Burylov4211911113
WJul 7 · 08:53R. Pisa4211713113V. Burylov379111161
WJul 7 · 05:15R. Pisa531111911113V. Burylov3913911422
R. Pisa10
WSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa2.5011119113L. Dobias1.50881191LSep 30 · 18:15V. Grubr2.10811119113R. Pisa1.6711881132LSep 30 · 17:45L. Dobias1.531111113R. Pisa2.389760WSep 30 · 08:18R. Pisa1.50101111113M. Vana2.50127161LSep 30 · 07:45R. Pisa1.731477101J. Rochowanski2.00121111123LSep 30 · 06:15M. Ullman1.83111184113R. Pisa1.8384111192WSep 30 · 05:45M. Vana2.5011128171R. Pisa1.5081411193WSep 27 · 20:14R. Pisa1.67111110113T. Liska2.10631241LSep 27 · 19:45L. Veigl1.611111113R. Pisa2.209330LSep 27 · 18:45T. Liska2.101111114163R. Pisa1.67813711142
V. Burylov10
WSep 30 · 18:45L. Dobias1.80612361V. Burylov1.91111011113WSep 30 · 17:15V. Grubr2.0051111282V. Burylov1.73116711113WSep 30 · 12:45L. Dobias1.7371360V. Burylov2.001115113WSep 30 · 11:15L. Veigl2.00981111102V. Burylov1.73111196123LSep 30 · 10:45V. Burylov2.001191631M. Stibor1.7381118113WSep 30 · 09:45V. Burylov1.911111113L. Dobias1.807570LSep 23 · 08:21M. Makara3.25111111113V. Burylov1.33138781LSep 23 · 07:15V. Burylov1.8311380M. Zelinka1.831311113LSep 23 · 06:15V. Burylov1.91811111242L. Dobias1.80117914113WSep 23 · 05:15V. Burylov1.831111113M. Makara1.839810
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