TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Burylov vs Ladislav Dobias 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1188119111210911
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Burylov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Burylov above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 100 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Burylov 28–27 Ladislav Dobias Ladislav Dobias has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Burylov beat Dobias 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:3454.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-27 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burylov 1719 vs Dobias 1670
Burylov
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burylov 60% vs Dobias 40%
Burylov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burylov 60% vs Dobias 30%
Burylov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Burylov +1 · Dobias +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Burylov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurylov 1.833 / Dobias 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Burylov)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13234936
Burylov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Dobias1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBurylov7wins
AwayDobias3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBurylov leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurylov100%7 of 7
AwayDobias100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burylov7Dobias3n = 10Burylov took 7 of 10
S2Burylov4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Burylov7Dobias3n = 10Burylov took 7 of 10
S4Burylov5Dobias2n = 7Burylov took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBurylovDobiasB − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.135.6+4.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurylovDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 441 vs 438 / 79649.7%55%219 / 441 vs 438 / 796Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.641.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BurylovBurylov 1.83/Dobias 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Burylov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 09:45V. Burylov3911411133L. Dobias369115111
WSep 30 · 18:45V. Burylov43111011113L. Dobias27612361
WSep 30 · 12:45V. Burylov371115113L. Dobias2671360
WSep 30 · 09:45V. Burylov331111113L. Dobias197570
LSep 23 · 06:15V. Burylov46811111242L. Dobias52117914113
LSep 22 · 08:18V. Burylov31651191L. Dobias3911116113
WSep 22 · 05:45V. Burylov4920117113L. Dobias441881171
WSep 18 · 19:45V. Burylov3911611113L. Dobias29511671
WSep 18 · 12:38V. Burylov541571011113L. Dobias47131112652
LSep 18 · 10:00V. Burylov30810120L. Dobias371112143
V. Burylov10
LOct 3 · 20:23V. Burylov1.731313241M. Kocvara2.00151111113WOct 3 · 18:15M. Kocvara1.806240V. Burylov1.911111113LOct 3 · 17:45L. Rulc2.101112113V. Burylov1.6791070WOct 3 · 12:44V. Burylov1.731111923R. Pisa2.00641101WOct 3 · 11:45V. Burylov1.8081111113L. Rulc1.91117991LOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192WOct 3 · 09:45L. Dobias1.839115111V. Burylov1.8311411133LSep 30 · 20:39V. Burylov1.731081281V. Grubr2.00121110113LSep 30 · 19:45R. Pisa2.101111106113V. Burylov1.6797121192WSep 30 · 18:45L. Dobias1.80612361V. Burylov1.91111011113
L. Dobias10
WOct 3 · 18:45L. Rulc2.0012891272L. Dobias1.7310111110113LOct 3 · 17:15M. Kocvara2.3813912113L. Dobias1.5311111091LOct 3 · 12:14L. Rulc2.201412118123L. Dobias1.611214911102WOct 3 · 11:15R. Pisa2.259101171L. Dobias1.5711127113LOct 3 · 10:45L. Dobias1.671211118132L. Rulc2.10149711153LOct 3 · 09:45L. Dobias1.839115111V. Burylov1.8311411133LSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa2.5011119113L. Dobias1.50881191LSep 30 · 19:15V. Grubr2.635111111113L. Dobias1.4411713982LSep 30 · 18:45L. Dobias1.80612361V. Burylov1.91111011113WSep 30 · 17:45L. Dobias1.531111113R. Pisa2.389760
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