TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Rulc vs Ladislav Dobias 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12108119111210711
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Rulc above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 101 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Ladislav Dobias at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Rulc 11–11 Ladislav Dobias Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 7h before this match
Rulc beat Dobias 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4454.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rulc 1679 vs Dobias 1659
Rulc
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rulc 60% vs Dobias 20%
Rulc
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rulc 60% vs Dobias 20%
Rulc
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rulc +2 · Dobias -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dobias) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRulc 2.00 / Dobias 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dobias)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234768
Rulc2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 52 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Dobias1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 196 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it96% 71 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 141 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRulc7wins
AwayDobias3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRulc leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRulc100%5 of 5
AwayDobias60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rulc5Dobias5n = 10split evenly
S2Rulc5Dobias5n = 10split evenly
S3Rulc6Dobias4n = 10Rulc took 6 of 10
S4Rulc4Dobias4n = 8split evenly
S5Rulc3Dobias0n = 3Rulc took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRulcDobiasR − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.543.5+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRulcDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime349 / 696 vs 437 / 79550.1%55%349 / 696 vs 437 / 795Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.741.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasRulc 2.00/Dobias 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 12:14L. Rulc571412118123L. Dobias561214911102
WOct 3 · 10:45L. Rulc56149711153L. Dobias551211118132
LSep 29 · 12:38L. Rulc33129120L. Dobias391411143
WSep 29 · 10:30L. Rulc46118115113L. Dobias4381171162
WSep 14 · 06:15L. Rulc4471111153L. Dobias391169131
LAug 25 · 05:45L. Rulc417111491L. Dobias47111312113
WAug 20 · 07:15L. Rulc4711178113L. Dobias438151191
WAug 7 · 06:00L. Rulc4671211163L. Dobias4211107141
LAug 4 · 07:15L. Rulc3810117101L. Dobias4112611123
WJun 25 · 12:33L. Rulc371112143L. Dobias30810120
L. Rulc10
WOct 3 · 19:15M. Kocvara2.2036111162L. Rulc1.61111196113WOct 3 · 17:45L. Rulc2.101112113V. Burylov1.6791070WOct 3 · 12:14L. Rulc2.201412118123L. Dobias1.611214911102LOct 3 · 11:45V. Burylov1.8081111113L. Rulc1.91117991WOct 3 · 10:45L. Dobias1.671211118132L. Rulc2.10149711153LOct 3 · 09:15R. Pisa1.8011711113L. Rulc1.91511791WOct 1 · 16:43M. Vyskocil1.671511581L. Rulc2.1017811113LOct 1 · 15:45L. Rulc1.57811871M. Vyskocil2.2511911113WOct 1 · 14:15O. Mezera2.75121550L. Rulc1.401417113WOct 1 · 13:45J. Krames Sr1.6111711982L. Rulc2.20611711113
L. Dobias10
LOct 3 · 17:15M. Kocvara2.3813912113L. Dobias1.5311111091LOct 3 · 12:14L. Rulc2.201412118123L. Dobias1.611214911102WOct 3 · 11:15R. Pisa2.259101171L. Dobias1.5711127113LOct 3 · 10:45L. Dobias1.671211118132L. Rulc2.10149711153LOct 3 · 09:45L. Dobias1.839115111V. Burylov1.8311411133LSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa2.5011119113L. Dobias1.50881191LSep 30 · 19:15V. Grubr2.635111111113L. Dobias1.4411713982LSep 30 · 18:45L. Dobias1.80612361V. Burylov1.91111011113WSep 30 · 17:45L. Dobias1.531111113R. Pisa2.389760LSep 30 · 12:45L. Dobias1.7371360V. Burylov2.001115113
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