TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Kocvara vs Ladislav Dobias 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13119111210119––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:14 and never touched: 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Kocvara above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 86 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Ladislav Dobias at 56.8%
86 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kocvara 5–7 Ladislav Dobias Martin Kocvara has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1456.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 8.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Dobias
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocvara 1766 vs Dobias 1668
Kocvara
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocvara 60% vs Dobias 20%
Kocvara
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocvara 50% vs Dobias 30%
Kocvara
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocvara -1 · Dobias -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Dobias) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocvara 2.375 / Dobias 1.533
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dobias)-8.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234341
Kocvara2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog55% won 54 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back45% 23 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back21% 5 of 24
Dobias1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 196 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it96% 71 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 141 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocvara4wins
AwayDobias6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocvara66.7%2 of 3
AwayDobias71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocvara3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S2Kocvara7Dobias3n = 10Kocvara took 7 of 10
S3Kocvara6Dobias4n = 10Kocvara took 6 of 10
S4Kocvara2Dobias7n = 9Dobias took 7 of 9
S5Kocvara2Dobias2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocvaraDobiasK − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.641.4−1.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocvaraDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 168 vs 437 / 79458.3%55%98 / 168 vs 437 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.141.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasKocvara 2.38/Dobias 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kocvara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara4231111982L. Dobias48119611113
LAug 18 · 12:55M. Kocvara377135121L. Dobias47111111143
WAug 18 · 10:15M. Kocvara4451111173L. Dobias371156151
LAug 12 · 05:15M. Kocvara29571161L. Dobias4211119113
LAug 11 · 20:48M. Kocvara34613781L. Dobias44111111113
WAug 11 · 19:45M. Kocvara511011811113L. Dobias4112711562
LJul 28 · 08:49M. Kocvara4371111772L. Dobias47117711113
WJul 28 · 05:15M. Kocvara48118116123L. Dobias39511211102
LJul 20 · 08:19M. Kocvara34116891L. Dobias4181111113
WJul 20 · 05:15M. Kocvara341211113L. Dobias2810990
M. Kocvara10
LOct 3 · 18:15M. Kocvara1.806240V. Burylov1.911111113LSep 29 · 16:18J. Krames Sr1.401311113M. Kocvara2.7511550WSep 29 · 15:15M. Kocvara2.7512149113J. Krames Sr1.4010121191LSep 29 · 14:15M. Kocvara2.75811991L. Heinzl1.4011811113WSep 29 · 13:15M. Kocvara1.5712616113O. Mezera2.2510111471WSep 27 · 08:19M. Kocvara2.381111113M. Zelinka1.539780LSep 27 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.36111110113M. Kocvara3.00881261LSep 27 · 06:45M. Zelinka1.61811711113M. Kocvara2.2011511582WSep 27 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.73411591M. Kocvara2.0011611113LSep 24 · 16:55L. Veigl1.91111011123M. Kocvara1.804126101
L. Dobias10
LOct 3 · 12:14L. Rulc2.201412118123L. Dobias1.611214911102WOct 3 · 11:15R. Pisa2.259101171L. Dobias1.5711127113LOct 3 · 10:45L. Dobias1.671211118132L. Rulc2.10149711153LOct 3 · 09:45L. Dobias1.839115111V. Burylov1.8311411133LSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa2.5011119113L. Dobias1.50881191LSep 30 · 19:15V. Grubr2.635111111113L. Dobias1.4411713982LSep 30 · 18:45L. Dobias1.80612361V. Burylov1.91111011113WSep 30 · 17:45L. Dobias1.531111113R. Pisa2.389760LSep 30 · 12:45L. Dobias1.7371360V. Burylov2.001115113WSep 30 · 11:45L. Dobias1.5791111113M. Stibor2.25113571
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