TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Kocvara vs Matus Zelinka 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMartin Kocvara above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 57 set 3, 11-8
57 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kocvara 0–2 Matus Zelinka Martin Kocvara has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Zelinka beat Kocvara 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Zelinka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelinka form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocvara 2.38 / Zelinka 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Zelinka)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13205455
Kocvara2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog56% won 51 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back48% 23 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back23% 5 of 22
Zelinka1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 70 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it81% 48 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKocvara0wins
AwayZelinka2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderZelinka leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKocvaraZelinkaK − ZBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match36.544.0−7.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocvaraZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 163 vs 215 / 40258.3%53.5%95 / 163 vs 215 / 402Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaKocvara 2.38/Zelinka 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kocvara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 27 · 06:45M. Kocvara4011511582M. Zelinka48811711113
LAug 10 · 11:45M. Kocvara331161061M. Zelinka4061112113
M. Kocvara10
LSep 27 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.36111110113M. Kocvara3.00881261LSep 27 · 06:45M. Zelinka1.61811711113M. Kocvara2.2011511582WSep 27 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.73411591M. Kocvara2.0011611113LSep 24 · 16:55L. Veigl1.91111011123M. Kocvara1.804126101WSep 24 · 15:45M. Kocvara1.8011129113L. Veigl1.917101171WSep 24 · 14:15M. Vyskocil1.801111681M. Kocvara1.9113411113WSep 24 · 13:45O. Mezera2.256111191M. Kocvara1.5711136113WSep 20 · 08:48M. Kocvara1.7311612113M. Bouska2.007111091WSep 20 · 07:45M. Kocvara1.8391112113V. Burylov1.831181041WSep 20 · 06:15M. Bouska1.8371511772M. Kocvara1.831113811113
M. Zelinka10
LSep 27 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.381111123M. Zelinka1.5395100WSep 27 · 06:45M. Zelinka1.61811711113M. Kocvara2.2011511582LSep 27 · 05:45M. Zelinka1.806570L. Heinzl1.911111113LSep 26 · 12:44M. Zelinka2.2598111162L. Dobias1.5711113893WSep 26 · 11:45L. Dobias1.83881181M. Zelinka1.8311114113WSep 26 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.9194111122M. Zelinka1.80111194113WSep 26 · 09:15J. Sr1.838920M. Zelinka1.831111113LSep 24 · 20:19M. Zelinka1.5311911892V. Grubr2.38911711113WSep 24 · 19:45L. Adam2.2581151192M. Zelinka1.57118113113LSep 24 · 18:45R. Pisa2.25111167113M. Zelinka1.5774111192
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