TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Heinzl vs Martin Kocvara 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181181012116––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 77 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 66.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 8–3 Martin Kocvara Martin Kocvara has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:47What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Heinzl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Heinzl
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1712 vs Kocvara 1775
Kocvara
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 40% vs Kocvara 60%
Kocvara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 40% vs Kocvara 80%
Kocvara
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl -1 · Kocvara -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Heinzl) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocvara form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.36 / Kocvara 3.00
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Heinzl)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13202822
Heinzl1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 146 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it95% 71 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it79% 108 of 137
Kocvara3.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog56% won 51 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back48% 23 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back23% 5 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl7wins
AwayKocvara3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl80%4 of 5
AwayKocvara40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl5Kocvara5n = 10split evenly
S2Heinzl8Kocvara2n = 10Heinzl took 8 of 10
S3Heinzl5Kocvara5n = 10split evenly
S4Heinzl5Kocvara3n = 8Heinzl took 5 of 8
S5Heinzl2Kocvara1n = 3Heinzl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlKocvaraH − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.335.5+3.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 643 vs 96 / 16454.1%58.5%348 / 643 vs 96 / 164Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.36/Kocvara 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.6%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 07:45L. Heinzl43111110113M. Kocvara34881261
WSep 1 · 06:15L. Heinzl4291111113M. Kocvara27115561
WAug 26 · 12:43L. Heinzl46611711113M. Kocvara4311611962
LAug 26 · 09:45L. Heinzl34116891M. Kocvara4071111113
WAug 9 · 18:45L. Heinzl4391111123M. Kocvara341194101
LJul 28 · 06:45L. Heinzl4461171192M. Kocvara46119114113
WJul 20 · 06:45L. Heinzl331111113M. Kocvara239770
WJun 30 · 09:08L. Heinzl331111113M. Kocvara236980
LJun 30 · 07:00L. Heinzl31851171M. Kocvara4111118113
WJun 9 · 19:00L. Heinzl44111138113M. Kocvara4469111172
L. Heinzl10
LSep 27 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.38813611113L. Heinzl1.53111111682WSep 27 · 05:45M. Zelinka1.806570L. Heinzl1.911111113LSep 26 · 12:14L. Heinzl1.577121151J. Sr2.2511149113WSep 26 · 11:15J. Sr2.202960L. Heinzl1.611111113LSep 26 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.9194111122M. Zelinka1.80111194113LSep 26 · 09:45L. Heinzl2.2511611552L. Dobias1.57711711113WSep 10 · 08:23L. Heinzl2.501171211113P. Wasik1.5051114892LSep 10 · 07:15P. Wasik1.571211113L. Heinzl2.2510420LSep 10 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.831261051M. Zelinka1.83101112113WSep 10 · 05:45L. Heinzl2.25111011113L. Dobias1.57812981
M. Kocvara10
WSep 27 · 08:19M. Kocvara2.381111113M. Zelinka1.539780LSep 27 · 06:45M. Zelinka1.61811711113M. Kocvara2.2011511582WSep 27 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.73411591M. Kocvara2.0011611113LSep 24 · 16:55L. Veigl1.91111011123M. Kocvara1.804126101WSep 24 · 15:45M. Kocvara1.8011129113L. Veigl1.917101171WSep 24 · 14:15M. Vyskocil1.801111681M. Kocvara1.9113411113WSep 24 · 13:45O. Mezera2.256111191M. Kocvara1.5711136113WSep 20 · 08:48M. Kocvara1.7311612113M. Bouska2.007111091WSep 20 · 07:45M. Kocvara1.8391112113V. Burylov1.831181041WSep 20 · 06:15M. Bouska1.8371511772M. Kocvara1.831113811113
Upcoming Matches
L. Heinzl
M. Kocvara
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