TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Heinzl vs Jan Krames Sr 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111214119511––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Jan Krames Sr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 80 set 4, 5-11
80 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 44–33 Jan Krames Sr Jan Krames Sr has won 33 of their 77 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Heinzl beat Sr 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sr form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.57 / Sr 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Heinzl)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13200084
Heinzl1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 145 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it95% 70 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it79% 107 of 136
Sr2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 40 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back31% 12 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl5wins
AwaySr5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl83.3%5 of 6
AwaySr100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl6Sr4n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S2Heinzl6Sr4n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S3Heinzl8Sr2n = 10Heinzl took 8 of 10
S4Heinzl1Sr3n = 4Sr took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlSrH − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.032.6+1.4per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlSrBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 639 vs 385 / 69154.2%55.7%346 / 639 vs 385 / 691Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.840.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.57/Sr 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.1%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 11:15L. Heinzl331111113J. Sr172960
LAug 30 · 10:45L. Heinzl44510121252J. Sr5411121010113
WAug 28 · 13:45L. Heinzl341111123J. Sr2275100
WAug 23 · 10:00L. Heinzl331111113J. Sr238780
LAug 7 · 13:45L. Heinzl324612101J. Sr44111110123
WJul 23 · 19:15L. Heinzl331111113J. Sr204790
LJul 9 · 14:00L. Heinzl249780J. Sr331111113
WJul 2 · 18:15L. Heinzl331111113J. Sr209740
LJun 16 · 20:48L. Heinzl305114101J. Sr4211811123
LJun 16 · 18:45L. Heinzl4411911672J. Sr51911911113
L. Heinzl10
WSep 26 · 11:15J. Sr2.202960L. Heinzl1.611111113LSep 26 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.9194111122M. Zelinka1.80111194113LSep 26 · 09:45L. Heinzl2.2511611552L. Dobias1.57711711113WSep 10 · 08:23L. Heinzl2.501171211113P. Wasik1.5051114892LSep 10 · 07:15P. Wasik1.571211113L. Heinzl2.2510420LSep 10 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.831261051M. Zelinka1.83101112113WSep 10 · 05:45L. Heinzl2.25111011113L. Dobias1.57812981WSep 8 · 08:48V. Grubr2.25711671L. Heinzl1.5711511113LSep 8 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.611011871V. Grubr2.2012711113WSep 8 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.835980L. Heinzl1.831111113
J. Sr10
LSep 26 · 11:15J. Sr2.202960L. Heinzl1.611111113LSep 26 · 10:15J. Sr1.9161171142L. Dobias1.80118119113LSep 26 · 09:15J. Sr1.838920M. Zelinka1.831111113LSep 18 · 20:43V. Burylov1.8311115113J. Sr1.83181131WSep 18 · 19:15A. Snr2.00671181J. Sr1.7311118113WSep 18 · 18:45J. Sr1.91111011133V. Burylov1.807128111WSep 18 · 17:45J. Sr1.831211810113L. Dobias1.83106111232WSep 15 · 20:14J. Sr1.611211113J. Dolezal2.2010770LSep 15 · 19:45S. Rejent2.251111113J. Sr1.577980LSep 15 · 18:45V. Grubr2.5012131012113J. Sr1.501411121082
Upcoming Matches
L. Heinzl
Nothing scheduled
J. Sr
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