TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matej Kovarik vs Martin Kocvara 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411116511911––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Kocvara to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Kovarik above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 68 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Martin Kocvara at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Matej Kovarik 1–0 Martin Kocvara Martin Kocvara has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovarik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kovarik 1609 vs Kocvara 1781
Kocvara
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovarik 20% vs Kocvara 80%
Kocvara
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovarik 40% vs Kocvara 90%
Kocvara
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovarik +1 · Kocvara -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kocvara)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocvara form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovarik 1.73 / Kocvara 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kocvara)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #13203334
Kovarik1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 25 days ago (Sep 02) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 11 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Kocvara2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 24)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog56% won 51 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back48% 23 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back23% 5 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKovarik1wins
AwayKocvara0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKovarik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKovarikKocvaraKovarik − KocvaraBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match47.047.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovarikKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 103 vs 94 / 16049.5%58.8%51 / 103 vs 94 / 160Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraKovarik 1.73/Kocvara 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kocvara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJun 17 · 06:45M. Kovarik47491211113M. Kocvara47111110782
M. Kovarik10
WSep 27 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.381111123M. Zelinka1.5395100WSep 27 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.38813611113L. Heinzl1.53111111682WSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121LSep 2 · 06:15M. Kovarik1.5311117772O. Mezera2.38831111113LSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123LAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191LAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113LAug 26 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.20711101172L. Adam1.61119127113LAug 26 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.80101111992V. Grubr1.91129811113WAug 19 · 08:18M. Kovarik2.101111105113L. Rulc1.6797121172
M. Kocvara10
LSep 27 · 06:45M. Zelinka1.61811711113M. Kocvara2.2011511582LSep 24 · 16:55L. Veigl1.91111011123M. Kocvara1.804126101WSep 24 · 15:45M. Kocvara1.8011129113L. Veigl1.917101171WSep 24 · 14:15M. Vyskocil1.801111681M. Kocvara1.9113411113WSep 24 · 13:45O. Mezera2.256111191M. Kocvara1.5711136113WSep 20 · 08:48M. Kocvara1.7311612113M. Bouska2.007111091WSep 20 · 07:45M. Kocvara1.8391112113V. Burylov1.831181041WSep 20 · 06:15M. Bouska1.8371511772M. Kocvara1.831113811113WSep 20 · 05:45L. Svoboda1.808920M. Kocvara1.911111113WSep 18 · 08:58M. Kocvara1.5011511113P. Fencl2.50511651
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