TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ladislav Dobias vs Michal Stibor 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911113115117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:43 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 68 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Ladislav Dobias at 59.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 18–10 Michal Stibor Michal Stibor has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4359.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-10 in 28
Dobias
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dobias 1715 vs Stibor 1711
Dobias
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dobias 40% vs Stibor 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dobias 50% vs Stibor 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dobias +1 · Stibor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Dobias) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.571 / Stibor 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Dobias)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218710
Dobias1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 193 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it80% 139 of 174
Stibor2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 27 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias6wins
AwayStibor4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias83.3%5 of 6
AwayStibor75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias6Stibor4n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Dobias6Stibor4n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Dobias4Stibor6n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S4Dobias3Stibor4n = 7Stibor took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasStiborD − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.634.0+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 784 vs 178 / 33455.4%53.3%434 / 784 vs 178 / 334Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasDobias 1.57/Stibor 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 06:15L. Dobias4011711113M. Stibor33811681
WSep 11 · 06:15L. Dobias341111123M. Stibor2064100
LSep 9 · 10:45L. Dobias29311691M. Stibor4111811113
WAug 25 · 06:15L. Dobias331111113M. Stibor195680
LAug 20 · 06:45L. Dobias38913791M. Stibor44111111113
WJul 21 · 05:15L. Dobias49116129113M. Stibor42411101162
WJul 20 · 06:15L. Dobias48711811113M. Stibor3411611242
LJun 11 · 06:45L. Dobias34117881M. Stibor4291111113
LJun 9 · 06:15L. Dobias219750M. Stibor331111113
WJun 8 · 09:15L. Dobias4011117113M. Stibor32691161
L. Dobias10
WSep 30 · 10:15L. Veigl2.0058150L. Dobias1.731111173LSep 30 · 09:45V. Burylov1.911111113L. Dobias1.807570WSep 29 · 12:38L. Dobias1.731411143L. Rulc2.00129120LSep 29 · 12:00L. Dobias1.576990T. Liska2.251111113LSep 29 · 10:30L. Rulc2.10118115113L. Dobias1.6781171162WSep 29 · 10:00M. Makara2.2081111692L. Dobias1.61119911113WSep 26 · 20:49L. Dobias1.61115119113M. Makara2.2081191172LSep 26 · 19:45M. Makara2.101011911113L. Dobias1.6712811682WSep 26 · 18:45J. Chalupa1.8311117992L. Dobias1.83881111113LSep 26 · 17:15J. Krames Sr1.8391113113L. Dobias1.831141181
M. Stibor10
LSep 30 · 12:14M. Stibor1.83141211672L. Veigl1.831610511113WSep 30 · 10:45V. Burylov2.001191631M. Stibor1.7381118113LSep 30 · 09:15L. Veigl2.001111113M. Stibor1.739960LSep 29 · 12:48L. Veigl2.20101111113M. Stibor1.61125771WSep 29 · 11:45M. Stibor1.73114116113L. Veigl2.0061131152LSep 29 · 10:15J. Rochowanski2.0011511113M. Stibor1.73811841WSep 29 · 09:45M. Myler2.387740M. Stibor1.531111113LSep 24 · 08:50M. Bouska1.4081111113M. Stibor2.75118281LSep 24 · 07:45M. Stibor2.206870M. Bouska1.611111113WSep 24 · 06:15T. Hlavacek1.301011116122M. Stibor3.40129611143
Upcoming Matches
L. Dobias
M. Stibor
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.