TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Radovan Pisa vs Ladislav Dobias 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111012117711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:11 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Ladislav Dobias at 56.5%
78 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 11–19 Ladislav Dobias Radovan Pisa has won 11 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1156.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-19 in 30
Dobias
Correct
gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1747 vs Dobias 1676
Pisa
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 100% vs Dobias 20%
Pisa
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 80% vs Dobias 40%
Pisa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa +8 · Dobias -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Dobias) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 2.25 / Dobias 1.571
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Dobias)-7.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234654
Pisa2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 84 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 53
Dobias1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 196 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it96% 71 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 141 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePisa5wins
AwayDobias5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisa100%3 of 3
AwayDobias71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S2Pisa8Dobias2n = 10Pisa took 8 of 10
S3Pisa3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S4Pisa5Dobias3n = 8Pisa took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPisaDobiasP − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.9+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 793 vs 436 / 79148.7%55.1%386 / 793 vs 436 / 791Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.641.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasPisa 2.25/Dobias 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa4211119113L. Dobias36881191
LSep 30 · 17:45R. Pisa229760L. Dobias331111113
LAug 13 · 08:48R. Pisa361111681L. Dobias4213711113
WAug 13 · 06:45R. Pisa4291111113L. Dobias32119391
WAug 12 · 08:49R. Pisa401811113L. Dobias3116870
LAug 12 · 07:45R. Pisa4091110101L. Dobias4411912123
LAug 6 · 12:18R. Pisa34871181L. Dobias4111118113
WAug 6 · 11:15R. Pisa3911116113L. Dobias30381181
LJul 24 · 05:45R. Pisa45411131162L. Dobias52118157113
WJul 22 · 08:00R. Pisa473111111113L. Dobias3811513722
R. Pisa10
WOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192WOct 3 · 09:15R. Pisa1.8011711113L. Rulc1.91511791WOct 2 · 08:53R. Pisa2.10411711113L. Adam1.6711811572WOct 2 · 07:45M. Vyskocil1.801111101122R. Pisa1.91671211143WOct 2 · 06:45O. Kaderabek2.0011119972R. Pisa1.73991111113WOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam1.6751191242R. Pisa2.101191110113WSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa2.5011119113L. Dobias1.50881191WSep 30 · 19:45R. Pisa2.101111106113V. Burylov1.6797121192LSep 30 · 18:15V. Grubr2.10811119113R. Pisa1.6711881132LSep 30 · 17:45L. Dobias1.531111113R. Pisa2.389760
L. Dobias10
LOct 3 · 12:14L. Rulc2.201412118123L. Dobias1.611214911102LOct 3 · 10:45L. Dobias1.671211118132L. Rulc2.10149711153LOct 3 · 09:45L. Dobias1.839115111V. Burylov1.8311411133LSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa2.5011119113L. Dobias1.50881191LSep 30 · 19:15V. Grubr2.635111111113L. Dobias1.4411713982LSep 30 · 18:45L. Dobias1.80612361V. Burylov1.91111011113WSep 30 · 17:45L. Dobias1.531111113R. Pisa2.389760LSep 30 · 12:45L. Dobias1.7371360V. Burylov2.001115113WSep 30 · 11:45L. Dobias1.5791111113M. Stibor2.25113571WSep 30 · 10:15L. Veigl2.0058150L. Dobias1.731111173
Upcoming Matches
R. Pisa
Nothing scheduled
L. Dobias
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