TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Adam vs Radovan Pisa 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111199111210411
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:11 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 93 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Lukas Adam at 56.2%
93 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 27–23 Radovan Pisa Radovan Pisa has won 23 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1156.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Adam
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-23 in 50
Adam
Wrong
gap of 4 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1722 vs Pisa 1697
Adam
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 60% vs Pisa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 50% vs Pisa 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam +1 · Pisa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Adam) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 1.666 / Pisa 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Adam)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229391
Adam1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 24) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 62 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it90% 43 of 48
Pisa2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 81 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back28% 26 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam5wins
AwayPisa5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam100%4 of 4
AwayPisa83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S2Adam5Pisa5n = 10split evenly
S3Adam4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S4Adam4Pisa2n = 6Adam took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamPisaA − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.236.1−1.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 540 vs 381 / 78851.7%48.4%279 / 540 vs 381 / 788Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamAdam 1.67/Pisa 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam4151191242R. Pisa521191110113
WSep 24 · 20:48L. Adam48116128113R. Pisa43711101142
WSep 24 · 17:45L. Adam4611119153R. Pisa323511131
LSep 21 · 12:49L. Adam168530R. Pisa331111113
LSep 21 · 09:45L. Adam2615560R. Pisa391711113
LSep 7 · 10:45L. Adam331061161R. Pisa4312119113
LAug 28 · 07:00L. Adam2156100R. Pisa341111123
WAug 11 · 05:45L. Adam4011117113R. Pisa34771191
WAug 10 · 11:15L. Adam331111113R. Pisa207760
WJul 23 · 07:45L. Adam3851111113R. Pisa31116681
L. Adam10
WOct 2 · 06:15L. Adam1.401114118113M. Vyskocil2.7551691182WSep 24 · 20:48L. Adam1.67116128113R. Pisa2.10711101142LSep 24 · 19:45L. Adam2.2581151192M. Zelinka1.57118113113WSep 24 · 18:15V. Grubr2.251010111392L. Adam1.571212611113WSep 24 · 17:45R. Pisa2.203511131L. Adam1.6111119153LSep 22 · 12:19L. Rulc1.831111113L. Adam1.837990WSep 22 · 11:15L. Adam1.73411711123L. Rulc2.00115117102LSep 22 · 10:15L. Adam1.73861151T. Liska2.0011116113LSep 22 · 09:15L. Adam1.67117118102M. Makara2.10911911123LSep 21 · 12:49R. Pisa2.381111113L. Adam1.538530
R. Pisa10
WSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa2.5011119113L. Dobias1.50881191WSep 30 · 19:45R. Pisa2.101111106113V. Burylov1.6797121192LSep 30 · 18:15V. Grubr2.10811119113R. Pisa1.6711881132LSep 30 · 17:45L. Dobias1.531111113R. Pisa2.389760WSep 30 · 08:18R. Pisa1.50101111113M. Vana2.50127161LSep 30 · 07:45R. Pisa1.731477101J. Rochowanski2.00121111123LSep 30 · 06:15M. Ullman1.83111184113R. Pisa1.8384111192LSep 24 · 20:48L. Adam1.67116128113R. Pisa2.10711101142LSep 24 · 17:45R. Pisa2.203511131L. Adam1.6111119153WSep 21 · 12:49R. Pisa2.381111113L. Adam1.538530
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.