TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Adam vs Marek Vyskocil 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151416119811118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:07 and never touched: 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Marek Vyskocil below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 104 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Lukas Adam at 67.1%
104 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 4–0 Marek Vyskocil Marek Vyskocil has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0767.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 4.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Adam
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Adam
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1730 vs Vyskocil 1656
Adam
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 60% vs Vyskocil 40%
Adam
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 40% vs Vyskocil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam -1 · Vyskocil -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Adam) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 1.40 / Vyskocil 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Adam)-4.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229000
Adam1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 62 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it90% 43 of 48
Vyskocil2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 26 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back23% 3 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAdam4wins
AwayVyskocil0wins
3 of 4 to a deciderAdam leads 4–0, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam2Vyskocil2n = 4split evenly
S2Adam3Vyskocil1n = 4Adam took 3 of 4
S3Adam4Vyskocil0n = 4Adam took 4 of 4
S4Adam0Vyskocil3n = 3Vyskocil took 3 of 3
S5Adam3Vyskocil0n = 3Adam took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home375%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricAdamVyskocilA − VBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match46.840.0+6.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamVyskocilBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 541 vs 226 / 42251.8%53.6%280 / 541 vs 226 / 422Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamAdam 1.40/Vyskocil 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 2 · 06:15L. Adam551114118113M. Vyskocil4951691182
WSep 7 · 12:23L. Adam48811117113M. Vyskocil4411681182
WSep 7 · 09:45L. Adam351113113M. Vyskocil2561180
WJul 23 · 06:45L. Adam496111110113M. Vyskocil4211551292
L. Adam10
LOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam1.6751191242R. Pisa2.101191110113WSep 24 · 20:48L. Adam1.67116128113R. Pisa2.10711101142LSep 24 · 19:45L. Adam2.2581151192M. Zelinka1.57118113113WSep 24 · 18:15V. Grubr2.251010111392L. Adam1.571212611113WSep 24 · 17:45R. Pisa2.203511131L. Adam1.6111119153LSep 22 · 12:19L. Rulc1.831111113L. Adam1.837990WSep 22 · 11:15L. Adam1.73411711123L. Rulc2.00115117102LSep 22 · 10:15L. Adam1.73861151T. Liska2.0011116113LSep 22 · 09:15L. Adam1.67117118102M. Makara2.10911911123LSep 21 · 12:49R. Pisa2.381111113L. Adam1.538530
M. Vyskocil10
LOct 2 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.5771714123M. Vyskocil2.25111512101LOct 1 · 16:43M. Vyskocil1.671511581L. Rulc2.1017811113WOct 1 · 15:45L. Rulc1.57811871M. Vyskocil2.2511911113LOct 1 · 14:45J. Krames Sr1.5011117113M. Vyskocil2.50371171WOct 1 · 13:15O. Mezera2.2047111192M. Vyskocil1.61111158113WOct 1 · 08:14J. Senk1.8311711822M. Vyskocil1.83911711113LOct 1 · 07:15M. Vyskocil1.80811861M. Ullman1.9111711113WOct 1 · 06:15M. Vyskocil1.53101111113T. Liska2.38127861LOct 1 · 05:15M. Vyskocil1.8399111132J. Senk1.83111148113LSep 24 · 16:24O. Mezera2.2011911123M. Vyskocil1.617113101
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