TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Adam vs Radovan Pisa 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1176111210811114
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 91 set 5, 11-4
91 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 26–22 Radovan Pisa Radovan Pisa has won 22 of their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Adam beat Pisa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adam)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 1.67 / Pisa 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adam)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13191924
Adam1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 59 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Pisa2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 80 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back29% 28 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam5wins
AwayPisa5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam80%4 of 5
AwayPisa80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam5Pisa5n = 10split evenly
S2Adam5Pisa5n = 10split evenly
S3Adam4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S4Adam4Pisa1n = 5Adam took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamPisaA − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.133.9−0.8per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 546 vs 382 / 78651.8%48.6%283 / 546 vs 382 / 786Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamAdam 1.67/Pisa 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 17:45L. Adam4611119153R. Pisa323511131
LSep 21 · 12:49L. Adam168530R. Pisa331111113
LSep 21 · 09:45L. Adam2615560R. Pisa391711113
LSep 7 · 10:45L. Adam331061161R. Pisa4312119113
LAug 28 · 07:00L. Adam2156100R. Pisa341111123
WAug 11 · 05:45L. Adam4011117113R. Pisa34771191
WAug 10 · 11:15L. Adam331111113R. Pisa207760
WJul 23 · 07:45L. Adam3851111113R. Pisa31116681
WJun 24 · 05:30L. Adam341111123R. Pisa2578100
LJun 10 · 05:45L. Adam44111131182R. Pisa48913114113
L. Adam10
LSep 24 · 19:45L. Adam2.2581151192M. Zelinka1.57118113113WSep 24 · 18:15V. Grubr2.251010111392L. Adam1.571212611113WSep 24 · 17:45R. Pisa2.203511131L. Adam1.6111119153LSep 22 · 12:19L. Rulc1.831111113L. Adam1.837990WSep 22 · 11:15L. Adam1.73411711123L. Rulc2.00115117102LSep 22 · 10:15L. Adam1.73861151T. Liska2.0011116113LSep 22 · 09:15L. Adam1.67117118102M. Makara2.10911911123LSep 21 · 12:49R. Pisa2.381111113L. Adam1.538530WSep 21 · 11:15M. Stibor1.671511911102L. Adam2.10179119123WSep 21 · 10:45L. Adam2.38118811113M. Zelinka1.5351111662
R. Pisa10
WSep 24 · 19:15V. Grubr2.108111141R. Pisa1.6711138113WSep 24 · 18:45R. Pisa2.25111167113M. Zelinka1.5774111192LSep 24 · 17:45R. Pisa2.203511131L. Adam1.6111119153WSep 21 · 12:49R. Pisa2.381111113L. Adam1.538530LSep 21 · 11:45R. Pisa2.1051160M. Zelinka1.671113113WSep 21 · 10:15M. Stibor1.739580R. Pisa2.001111113WSep 21 · 09:45L. Adam1.5315560R. Pisa2.381711113LSep 20 · 12:43R. Pisa2.50661181M. Zelinka1.5011116113WSep 20 · 11:45R. Pisa1.671111113M. Makara2.106990LSep 20 · 10:15M. Zelinka1.731111113R. Pisa2.007980
Upcoming Matches
L. Adam
Nothing scheduled
R. Pisa
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