TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Kaderabek vs Radovan Pisa 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119119911911711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:32 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeRadovan Pisa to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kaderabek above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 98 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Radovan Pisa at 54.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kaderabek 10–15 Radovan Pisa Ondrej Kaderabek has won 10 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:3254.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pisa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-15 in 25
Pisa
Correct
gap of 5 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaderabek 1674 vs Pisa 1708
Pisa
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaderabek 60% vs Pisa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaderabek 40% vs Pisa 60%
Pisa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaderabek +2 · Pisa +3
Pisa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pisa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaderabek 2.00 / Pisa 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pisa)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229036
Kaderabek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 37 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Pisa1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 82 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it66% 59 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaderabek4wins
AwayPisa6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPisa leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaderabek50%2 of 4
AwayPisa66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaderabek4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S2Kaderabek7Pisa3n = 10Kaderabek took 7 of 10
S3Kaderabek2Pisa8n = 10Pisa took 8 of 10
S4Kaderabek5Pisa4n = 9Kaderabek took 5 of 9
S5Kaderabek1Pisa2n = 3Pisa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaderabekPisaK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.440.4−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaderabekPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 388 vs 382 / 78951.3%48.4%199 / 388 vs 382 / 789Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PisaKaderabek 2.00/Pisa 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Pisa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 06:45O. Kaderabek4711119972R. Pisa51991111113
LSep 20 · 09:45O. Kaderabek33911941R. Pisa4211911113
WJun 30 · 08:38O. Kaderabek4291111113R. Pisa33118681
WJun 30 · 06:30O. Kaderabek3741111113R. Pisa30116491
LJun 29 · 09:15O. Kaderabek32611961R. Pisa3911611113
WJun 14 · 09:03O. Kaderabek47117711113R. Pisa4551111992
LJun 14 · 06:00O. Kaderabek28811811R. Pisa3811511113
LJun 8 · 08:53O. Kaderabek2611960R. Pisa351311113
WJun 8 · 07:45O. Kaderabek4612128143R. Pisa43101011121
LMay 21 · 12:18O. Kaderabek4611991162R. Pisa48911116113
O. Kaderabek10
LOct 2 · 07:15L. Adam2.00119117113O. Kaderabek1.7361171182WOct 2 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.5771714123M. Vyskocil2.25111512101WSep 21 · 08:18L. Svoboda2.2513711752O. Kaderabek1.571111611113LSep 21 · 07:15P. Wasik1.4411119113O. Kaderabek2.63271141WSep 21 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.6111119113L. Svoboda2.20961171LSep 21 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.73711281V. Burylov2.0011611113LSep 20 · 12:14M. Makara2.0261111113O. Kaderabek1.70117371LSep 20 · 11:15M. Zelinka1.6111611113O. Kaderabek2.20711591WSep 20 · 10:45O. Kaderabek1.6751111123M. Makara2.101188101LSep 20 · 09:45O. Kaderabek1.91911941R. Pisa1.8011911113
R. Pisa10
WOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam1.6751191242R. Pisa2.101191110113WSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa2.5011119113L. Dobias1.50881191WSep 30 · 19:45R. Pisa2.101111106113V. Burylov1.6797121192LSep 30 · 18:15V. Grubr2.10811119113R. Pisa1.6711881132LSep 30 · 17:45L. Dobias1.531111113R. Pisa2.389760WSep 30 · 08:18R. Pisa1.50101111113M. Vana2.50127161LSep 30 · 07:45R. Pisa1.731477101J. Rochowanski2.00121111123LSep 30 · 06:15M. Ullman1.83111184113R. Pisa1.8384111192WSep 30 · 05:45M. Vana2.5011128171R. Pisa1.5081411193WSep 20 · 09:45O. Kaderabek1.91911941R. Pisa1.8011911113
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