TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matus Zelinka vs Volodymyr Burylov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161179111210––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Matus Zelinka at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 12–16 Volodymyr Burylov Matus Zelinka has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3954.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Burylov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-16 in 28
Burylov
Wrong
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelinka 1769 vs Burylov 1710
Zelinka
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelinka 80% vs Burylov 40%
Zelinka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelinka 50% vs Burylov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelinka -1 · Burylov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zelinka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burylov form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 1.909 / Burylov 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zelinka)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13240271
Zelinka1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 23 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back36% 10 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Burylov1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite41% won 45 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it61% 33 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelinka5wins
AwayBurylov5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka80%4 of 5
AwayBurylov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka5Burylov5n = 10split evenly
S2Zelinka5Burylov5n = 10split evenly
S3Zelinka6Burylov4n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S4Zelinka2Burylov7n = 9Burylov took 7 of 9
S5Zelinka3Burylov1n = 4Zelinka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelinkaBurylovZ − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.442.5−1.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 408 vs 220 / 44453.7%49.6%219 / 408 vs 220 / 444Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaZelinka 1.91/Burylov 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 07:15M. Zelinka351311113V. Burylov2211380
LSep 22 · 06:45M. Zelinka48101111882V. Burylov50127911113
WAug 30 · 07:45M. Zelinka591512912113V. Burylov561314111082
LAug 28 · 06:45M. Zelinka31591161V. Burylov4111118113
WMay 9 · 08:33M. Zelinka518111110113V. Burylov4911981292
LMay 9 · 05:30M. Zelinka30611761V. Burylov3911611113
LMar 4 · 21:48M. Zelinka35871191V. Burylov4211119113
WMar 4 · 18:15M. Zelinka45111183123V. Burylov47961111102
LFeb 4 · 19:15M. Zelinka371181081V. Burylov4061112113
WNov 10 · 14:45M. Zelinka4311811133V. Burylov398119111
M. Zelinka10
LOct 4 · 15:15D. Gasparovic1.83711115113M. Zelinka1.8311861152LOct 4 · 13:45M. Zelinka1.731189121M. Makara2.0031111143WSep 28 · 12:50M. Zelinka1.8311126153D. Gasparovic1.8351011131WSep 28 · 11:45M. Zelinka1.8311811113J. Krames Sr1.83811791WSep 28 · 10:15D. Gasparovic1.801276121M. Zelinka1.91101111143WSep 28 · 09:45L. Veigl2.3812101181M. Zelinka1.5314129113LSep 27 · 08:19M. Kocvara2.381111113M. Zelinka1.539780LSep 27 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.381111123M. Zelinka1.5395100WSep 27 · 06:45M. Zelinka1.61811711113M. Kocvara2.2011511582LSep 27 · 05:45M. Zelinka1.806570L. Heinzl1.911111113
V. Burylov10
LOct 4 · 15:45M. Makara1.8311512113V. Burylov1.839111071WOct 4 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.8313101091V. Burylov1.83111212113LOct 3 · 20:23V. Burylov1.731313241M. Kocvara2.00151111113LOct 3 · 19:45V. Burylov1.8311891292L. Dobias1.838111110113WOct 3 · 18:15M. Kocvara1.806240V. Burylov1.911111113LOct 3 · 17:45L. Rulc2.101112113V. Burylov1.6791070WOct 3 · 12:44V. Burylov1.731111923R. Pisa2.00641101WOct 3 · 11:45V. Burylov1.8081111113L. Rulc1.91117991LOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192WOct 3 · 09:45L. Dobias1.839115111V. Burylov1.8311411133
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