TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matus Zelinka vs Michal Makara 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1138119111214––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:43 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 79 set 4, 12-14 · our read held Matus Zelinka at 56.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 7–7 Michal Makara Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4356.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zelinka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelinka 1785 vs Makara 1640
Zelinka
Wrong
both rated, 145 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelinka 80% vs Makara 20%
Zelinka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelinka 60% vs Makara 40%
Zelinka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelinka +4 · Makara -2
Zelinka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Zelinka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 1.727 / Makara 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Zelinka)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240379
Zelinka1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 71 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it83% 49 of 59
Makara2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 152 of 339
Down 0–1, comes back26% 46 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelinka4wins
AwayMakara6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMakara leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka50%2 of 4
AwayMakara66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka4Makara6n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S2Zelinka5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S3Zelinka3Makara7n = 10Makara took 7 of 10
S4Zelinka2Makara5n = 7Makara took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelinkaMakaraZ − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.438.6−3.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 407 vs 502 / 105053.8%47.8%219 / 407 vs 502 / 1050Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaZelinka 1.73/Makara 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 06:45M. Zelinka551311713113M. Makara53159111172
WSep 20 · 09:15M. Zelinka3631111113M. Makara29118911
LAug 24 · 05:15M. Zelinka26122481M. Makara43101111113
WAug 9 · 08:48M. Zelinka331111113M. Makara217590
LAug 9 · 06:45M. Zelinka371185131M. Makara4031111153
WAug 8 · 20:44M. Zelinka541261112133M. Makara541011814112
LAug 8 · 18:45M. Zelinka36911971M. Makara3911611113
LAug 7 · 05:30M. Zelinka174850M. Makara331111113
LJun 13 · 09:30M. Zelinka36911881M. Makara4111811113
LMay 11 · 09:15M. Zelinka247980M. Makara331111113
M. Zelinka10
WSep 28 · 12:50M. Zelinka1.8311126153D. Gasparovic1.8351011131WSep 28 · 11:45M. Zelinka1.8311811113J. Krames Sr1.83811791WSep 28 · 10:15D. Gasparovic1.801276121M. Zelinka1.91101111143WSep 28 · 09:45L. Veigl2.3812101181M. Zelinka1.5314129113LSep 27 · 08:19M. Kocvara2.381111113M. Zelinka1.539780LSep 27 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.381111123M. Zelinka1.5395100WSep 27 · 06:45M. Zelinka1.61811711113M. Kocvara2.2011511582LSep 27 · 05:45M. Zelinka1.806570L. Heinzl1.911111113LSep 26 · 12:44M. Zelinka2.2598111162L. Dobias1.5711113893WSep 26 · 11:45L. Dobias1.83881181M. Zelinka1.8311114113
M. Makara10
LOct 4 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.44141311113M. Makara2.631215471LOct 4 · 08:14L. Rulc1.831111113M. Makara1.836980LOct 4 · 07:15L. Dobias1.67116119113M. Makara2.1081171182WOct 4 · 06:45M. Makara1.915111111123L. Rulc1.80117139102LOct 4 · 05:45M. Makara2.00691121A. Snr1.7311119113LOct 3 · 08:13M. Makara1.61101271182O. Mezera2.201210117113LOct 3 · 07:45M. Makara2.0087100L. Veigl1.731111123LOct 3 · 06:15J. Krames Sr1.5391111113M. Makara2.38118261WOct 3 · 05:45O. Mezera2.2081181192M. Makara1.61114114113WOct 2 · 16:45M. Makara1.67118118113M. Vyskocil2.1081131192
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