TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Makara vs Ales Brandtl Snr 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611911119211––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:40 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Brandtl Snr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Makara above · Ales Brandtl Snr below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 70 set 4, 2-11 · our read held Ales Brandtl Snr at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 3–2 Ales Brandtl Snr Ales Brandtl Snr has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:4054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Snr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makara 1668 vs Snr 1595
Makara
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makara 40% vs Snr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makara 60% vs Snr 30%
Makara
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Makara -3 · Snr +1
Makara
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Snr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 2.00 / Snr 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Snr)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13239998
Makara2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 152 of 339
Down 0–1, comes back26% 46 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 87
Snr1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 15 days ago (Sep 18) · back after a break
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite40% won 6 of 15
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it50% 6 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMakara3wins
AwaySnr2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderMakara leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakaran = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySnr50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara1Snr4n = 5Snr took 4 of 5
S2Makara3Snr2n = 5Makara took 3 of 5
S3Makara1Snr4n = 5Snr took 4 of 5
S4Makara1Snr2n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
S5Makara3Snr0n = 3Makara took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricMakaraSnrM − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match37.841.4−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime502 / 1050 vs 14 / 4347.8%32.6%502 / 1050 vs 14 / 43Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SnrMakara 2.00/Snr 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 12 · 09:15M. Makara44611511113A. Snr4511611982
WSep 11 · 16:24M. Makara51111199113A. Snr4368111172
LSep 11 · 13:15M. Makara185850A. Snr331111113
LJun 9 · 20:18M. Makara2449110A. Snr351111133
WJun 9 · 18:45M. Makara52717116113A. Snr51111561182
M. Makara10
LOct 3 · 08:13M. Makara1.61101271182O. Mezera2.201210117113LOct 3 · 07:45M. Makara2.0087100L. Veigl1.731111123LOct 3 · 06:15J. Krames Sr1.5391111113M. Makara2.38118261WOct 3 · 05:45O. Mezera2.2081181192M. Makara1.61114114113WOct 2 · 16:45M. Makara1.67118118113M. Vyskocil2.1081131192WOct 2 · 15:45M. Makara1.831411113T. Liska1.8312870LOct 2 · 14:15M. Vyskocil2.25911119113M. Makara1.5711661162WOct 2 · 13:45O. Mezera2.20651171M. Makara1.6111119113WSep 29 · 13:09T. Liska1.8398111152M. Makara1.83111197113WSep 29 · 11:30L. Rulc1.91101490M. Makara1.801216113
A. Snr10
WOct 4 · 06:15L. Dobias1.5057120A. Snr2.501111143WSep 18 · 20:13L. Dobias1.4491190A. Snr2.631113113LSep 18 · 19:15A. Snr2.00671181J. Krames Sr1.7311118113LSep 18 · 18:15A. Snr2.6369121142L. Dobias1.441111109113LSep 18 · 17:15A. Snr1.8310990V. Burylov1.831211113WSep 12 · 12:17V. Burylov1.80116951A. Snr1.9181111113WSep 12 · 11:15A. Snr2.1091113113V. Burylov1.671171191LSep 12 · 10:15A. Snr1.838960L. Svoboda1.831111113LSep 12 · 09:15A. Snr1.6711611982M. Makara2.10611511113LSep 11 · 16:24M. Makara2.25111199113A. Snr1.5768111172
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