TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Makara vs Tomas Liska 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412118117––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Makara to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Makara above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 63 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Michal Makara at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 54–48 Tomas Liska Tomas Liska has won 48 of their 102 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Liska
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
54-48 in 102
Makara
Correct
gap of 6 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makara 1671 vs Liska 1675
Liska
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makara 80% vs Liska 60%
Makara
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makara 50% vs Liska 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Makara -1 · Liska -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Makara) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 1.833 / Liska 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Makara)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13229117
Makara1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Liska1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakara5wins
AwayLiska5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakara100%4 of 4
AwayLiska83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara4Liska6n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S2Makara5Liska5n = 10split evenly
S3Makara3Liska7n = 10Liska took 7 of 10
S4Makara4Liska4n = 8split evenly
S5Makara3Liska1n = 4Makara took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakaraLiskaM − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.643.6−3.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime501 / 1052 vs 401 / 86547.6%46.4%501 / 1052 vs 401 / 865Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MakaraMakara 1.83/Liska 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Makara · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 13:09M. Makara49111197113T. Liska4498111152
WSep 29 · 11:00M. Makara4714611163T. Liska4512118141
LSep 25 · 09:15M. Makara376117131T. Liska4511811153
WSep 22 · 12:48M. Makara569111212123T. Liska521171410102
WSep 22 · 11:45M. Makara3811124113T. Liska388101191
WSep 17 · 12:18M. Makara47117117113T. Liska4341181192
LSep 17 · 10:45M. Makara30791131T. Liska4011117113
LSep 13 · 11:45M. Makara3114890T. Liska381611113
LSep 8 · 10:00M. Makara2461170T. Liska351113113
LAug 29 · 09:30M. Makara47313121182T. Liska561111149113
M. Makara10
LOct 2 · 14:15M. Vyskocil2.25911119113M. Makara1.5711661162WOct 2 · 13:45O. Mezera2.20651171M. Makara1.6111119113WSep 29 · 13:09T. Liska1.8398111152M. Makara1.83111197113WSep 29 · 11:30L. Rulc1.91101490M. Makara1.801216113WSep 29 · 11:00M. Makara1.6714611163T. Liska2.1012118141LSep 29 · 10:00M. Makara2.2081111692L. Dobias1.61119911113WSep 28 · 16:23A. Radkovsky2.10117991M. Makara1.6741111113LSep 28 · 15:15S. Rejent1.731011811113M. Makara2.0012911862LSep 28 · 14:45M. Makara1.61119111152A. Radkovsky2.20131172113LSep 28 · 13:45M. Makara2.207360L. Heinzl1.611111113
T. Liska10
WOct 2 · 16:15T. Liska1.581111133O. Mezera2.2547110LOct 2 · 14:45O. Mezera2.501181110113T. Liska1.5081131272WOct 2 · 13:15M. Vyskocil1.509118121T. Liska2.5011911143WOct 1 · 08:43T. Liska1.7371111123M. Ullman2.001176101WOct 1 · 07:45T. Liska1.5791111113J. Senk2.25113821LOct 1 · 06:15M. Vyskocil1.53101111113T. Liska2.38127861WOct 1 · 05:45M. Ullman1.9195100T. Liska1.801111123LSep 29 · 13:09T. Liska1.8398111152M. Makara1.83111197113WSep 29 · 12:00L. Dobias1.576990T. Liska2.251111113LSep 29 · 11:00M. Makara1.6714611163T. Liska2.1012118141
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