TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Mezera vs Tomas Liska 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1188111131012117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:34 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Liska to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 92 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Tomas Liska at 63.3%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 0–4 Tomas Liska Ondrej Mezera has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3463.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Liska
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Liska
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1597 vs Liska 1688
Liska
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 20% vs Liska 80%
Liska
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 30% vs Liska 60%
Liska
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera -2 · Liska +3
Liska
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Liska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liska form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.50 / Liska 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Liska)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229396
Mezera2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 118 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back32% 50 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back18% 14 of 76
Liska1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 39 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMezera0wins
AwayLiska4wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLiska leads 4–0, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezeran = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLiska100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera1Liska3n = 4Liska took 3 of 4
S2Mezera2Liska2n = 4split evenly
S3Mezera0Liska4n = 4Liska took 4 of 4
S4Mezera3Liska0n = 3Mezera took 3 of 3
S5Mezera0Liska3n = 3Liska took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away375%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMezeraLiskaM − LBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match38.546.2−7.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 801 vs 401 / 86448.8%46.4%391 / 801 vs 401 / 864Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.740.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LiskaMezera 2.50/Liska 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Liska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mezera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 13 · 09:45O. Mezera4671181282T. Liska501171110113
LAug 10 · 13:15O. Mezera4111941162T. Liska49911117113
LJul 9 · 13:15O. Mezera4151271162T. Liska501110117113
LFeb 2 · 12:15O. Mezera26511100T. Liska361113123
O. Mezera10
LOct 2 · 16:15T. Liska1.581111133O. Mezera2.2547110LOct 2 · 15:15M. Vyskocil1.671911113O. Mezera2.1017680LOct 2 · 13:45O. Mezera2.20651171M. Makara1.6111119113LOct 1 · 16:13J. Krames Sr1.4411119113O. Mezera2.63931161WOct 1 · 15:15O. Mezera4.00411148113J. Krames Sr1.22118121192LOct 1 · 14:15O. Mezera2.75121550L. Rulc1.401417113LOct 1 · 13:15O. Mezera2.2047111192M. Vyskocil1.61111158113WSep 29 · 16:49O. Mezera2.381215113L. Heinzl1.53101390WSep 29 · 15:45L. Heinzl1.25912991O. Mezera3.75111011113LSep 29 · 14:45J. Krames Sr1.2811611113O. Mezera3.50711391
T. Liska10
WOct 2 · 16:15T. Liska1.581111133O. Mezera2.2547110LOct 2 · 15:45M. Makara1.831411113T. Liska1.8312870WOct 2 · 13:15M. Vyskocil1.509118121T. Liska2.5011911143WOct 1 · 08:43T. Liska1.7371111123M. Ullman2.001176101WOct 1 · 07:45T. Liska1.5791111113J. Senk2.25113821LOct 1 · 06:15M. Vyskocil1.53101111113T. Liska2.38127861WOct 1 · 05:45M. Ullman1.9195100T. Liska1.801111123LSep 29 · 13:09T. Liska1.8398111152M. Makara1.83111197113WSep 29 · 12:00L. Dobias1.576990T. Liska2.251111113LSep 29 · 11:00M. Makara1.6714611163T. Liska2.1012118141
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