TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Liska vs Jakub Senk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911113118112––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:35 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Liska to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Liska above · Jakub Senk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 66 set 4, 11-2 · our read held Tomas Liska at 60.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Liska 12–4 Jakub Senk Jakub Senk has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3560.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Liska
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Liska
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Liska 1666 vs Senk 1611
Liska
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Liska 40% vs Senk 60%
Senk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Liska 40% vs Senk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Liska -1 · Senk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Liska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLiska 1.571 / Senk 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Liska)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224074
Liska1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 36 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it68% 27 of 40
Senk2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back31% 10 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLiska7wins
AwaySenk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLiska leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLiska83.3%5 of 6
AwaySenk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Liska6Senk4n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S2Liska4Senk6n = 10Senk took 6 of 10
S3Liska8Senk2n = 10Liska took 8 of 10
S4Liska5Senk2n = 7Liska took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLiskaSenkL − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.734.7+6.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLiskaSenkBasisWin rate · lifetime399 / 864 vs 152 / 28546.2%53.3%399 / 864 vs 152 / 285Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LiskaLiska 1.57/Senk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Liska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Liska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 1 · 07:45T. Liska4291111113J. Senk24113821
WSep 4 · 06:45T. Liska331111113J. Senk257990
LAug 15 · 13:45T. Liska4011101181J. Senk4513129113
WMay 23 · 13:04T. Liska528111111113J. Senk4111135662
WMay 23 · 11:00T. Liska331111113J. Senk227870
LMay 10 · 12:00T. Liska35881181J. Senk3711114113
WJan 24 · 06:15T. Liska4211119113J. Senk31691151
WJan 3 · 11:45T. Liska4414811113J. Senk361211761
LDec 28 · 06:15T. Liska4511771192J. Senk51911119113
T. Liska10
LOct 1 · 06:15M. Vyskocil1.53101111113T. Liska2.38127861WOct 1 · 05:45M. Ullman1.9195100T. Liska1.801111123LSep 29 · 13:09T. Liska1.8398111152M. Makara1.83111197113WSep 29 · 12:00L. Dobias1.576990T. Liska2.251111113LSep 29 · 11:00M. Makara1.6714611163T. Liska2.1012118141WSep 29 · 09:30L. Rulc1.6111611792T. Liska2.20711411113LSep 27 · 20:14R. Pisa1.67111110113T. Liska2.10631241LSep 27 · 19:15M. Ullman2.0051112113T. Liska1.731181081WSep 27 · 18:45T. Liska2.101111114163R. Pisa1.67813711142LSep 27 · 17:45T. Liska1.83126991L. Veigl1.83101111113
J. Senk10
LOct 1 · 08:14J. Senk1.8311711822M. Vyskocil1.83911711113LOct 1 · 06:45M. Ullman1.80111358113J. Senk1.91611111152WOct 1 · 05:15M. Vyskocil1.8399111132J. Senk1.83111148113WSep 22 · 16:49M. Myler1.73911119132J. Senk2.00119911153LSep 22 · 15:45J. Senk1.6795150M. Myler2.101111152LSep 22 · 14:15L. Veigl1.571011611173J. Senk2.25122115152WSep 22 · 13:45O. Mezera2.001011991J. Senk1.7312911113WSep 15 · 08:33J. Senk2.00119911113M. Ullman1.7391111882LSep 15 · 08:00R. Pisa1.73311811113J. Senk2.0011811752LSep 15 · 07:00L. Rulc1.83111011113J. Senk1.83512651
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