TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Makara vs Lukas Rulc 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
51111711131191210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:42 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Makara above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 100 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Lukas Rulc at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 46–47 Lukas Rulc Michal Makara has won 46 of their 93 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4254.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rulc
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
46-47 in 93
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makara 1655 vs Rulc 1648
Makara
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makara 20% vs Rulc 40%
Rulc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makara 50% vs Rulc 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Makara -4 · Rulc -2
Makara
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rulc) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 1.909 / Rulc 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rulc)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240225
Makara1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 152 of 339
Down 0–1, comes back26% 46 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 87
Rulc1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite55% won 89 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it68% 64 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakara4wins
AwayRulc6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRulc leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakara75%3 of 4
AwayRulc83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara4Rulc6n = 10Rulc took 6 of 10
S2Makara7Rulc3n = 10Makara took 7 of 10
S3Makara6Rulc4n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S4Makara4Rulc4n = 8split evenly
S5Makara1Rulc4n = 5Rulc took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakaraRulcM − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.443.3−1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 1053 vs 350 / 70147.8%49.9%503 / 1053 vs 350 / 701Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RulcMakara 1.91/Rulc 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 06:45M. Makara505111111123L. Rulc50117139102
WSep 29 · 11:30M. Makara391216113L. Rulc33101490
LSep 25 · 10:45M. Makara44124111162L. Rulc49141194113
LSep 22 · 10:45M. Makara34813941L. Rulc44111111113
WAug 29 · 13:05M. Makara381512113L. Rulc32131090
LAug 29 · 12:00M. Makara4391111662L. Rulc50118911113
LAug 22 · 11:45M. Makara50111111982L. Rulc46713411113
LAug 14 · 12:44M. Makara371261181L. Rulc4314117113
WAug 14 · 09:15M. Makara44111110123L. Rulc387912101
LAug 10 · 05:15M. Makara3551311152L. Rulc481111114113
M. Makara10
LOct 4 · 07:15L. Dobias1.67116119113M. Makara2.1081171182LOct 4 · 05:45M. Makara2.00691121A. Snr1.7311119113LOct 3 · 08:13M. Makara1.61101271182O. Mezera2.201210117113LOct 3 · 07:45M. Makara2.0087100L. Veigl1.731111123LOct 3 · 06:15J. Krames Sr1.5391111113M. Makara2.38118261WOct 3 · 05:45O. Mezera2.2081181192M. Makara1.61114114113WOct 2 · 16:45M. Makara1.67118118113M. Vyskocil2.1081131192WOct 2 · 15:45M. Makara1.831411113T. Liska1.8312870LOct 2 · 14:15M. Vyskocil2.25911119113M. Makara1.5711661162WOct 2 · 13:45O. Mezera2.20651171M. Makara1.6111119113
L. Rulc10
LOct 4 · 07:45A. Snr2.0071111113L. Rulc1.73115661LOct 4 · 05:15L. Dobias1.80121311113L. Rulc1.911411691LOct 3 · 20:54L. Dobias1.8091112113L. Rulc1.911131081WOct 3 · 19:15M. Kocvara2.2036111162L. Rulc1.61111196113LOct 3 · 18:45L. Rulc2.0012891272L. Dobias1.7310111110113WOct 3 · 17:45L. Rulc2.101112113V. Burylov1.6791070WOct 3 · 12:14L. Rulc2.201412118123L. Dobias1.611214911102LOct 3 · 11:45V. Burylov1.8081111113L. Rulc1.91117991WOct 3 · 10:45L. Dobias1.671211118132L. Rulc2.10149711153LOct 3 · 09:15R. Pisa1.8011711113L. Rulc1.91511791
Upcoming Matches
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L. Rulc
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