TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ladislav Dobias vs Radovan Pisa 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12109111141012611
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:42 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 96 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Ladislav Dobias at 59.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 20–11 Radovan Pisa Radovan Pisa has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:4259.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-11 in 31
Dobias
Wrong
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dobias 1685 vs Pisa 1694
Pisa
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dobias 60% vs Pisa 20%
Dobias
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dobias 60% vs Pisa 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dobias -1 · Pisa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Dobias) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.571 / Pisa 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Dobias)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245307
Dobias1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 201 of 354
Up 2–0, closes it96% 72 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it79% 143 of 180
Pisa2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 86 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back29% 28 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias6wins
AwayPisa4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias85.7%6 of 7
AwayPisa100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias7Pisa3n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S2Dobias3Pisa7n = 10Pisa took 7 of 10
S3Dobias6Pisa4n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S4Dobias4Pisa4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasPisaD − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.237.7+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime442 / 802 vs 382 / 79155.1%48.3%442 / 802 vs 382 / 791Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasDobias 1.57/Pisa 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 11:15L. Dobias4111127113R. Pisa379101171
LSep 30 · 20:19L. Dobias36881191R. Pisa4211119113
WSep 30 · 17:45L. Dobias331111113R. Pisa229760
WAug 13 · 08:48L. Dobias4213711113R. Pisa361111681
LAug 13 · 06:45L. Dobias32119391R. Pisa4291111113
LAug 12 · 08:49L. Dobias3116870R. Pisa401811113
WAug 12 · 07:45L. Dobias4411912123R. Pisa4091110101
WAug 6 · 12:18L. Dobias4111118113R. Pisa34871181
LAug 6 · 11:15L. Dobias30381181R. Pisa3911116113
WJul 24 · 05:45L. Dobias52118157113R. Pisa45411131162
L. Dobias10
LOct 4 · 08:43A. Snr2.10811114123L. Dobias1.67114911102WOct 4 · 07:15L. Dobias1.67116119113M. Makara2.1081171182LOct 4 · 06:15L. Dobias1.5057120A. Snr2.501111143WOct 4 · 05:15L. Dobias1.80121311113L. Rulc1.911411691WOct 3 · 20:54L. Dobias1.8091112113L. Rulc1.911131081WOct 3 · 19:45V. Burylov1.8311891292L. Dobias1.838111110113WOct 3 · 18:45L. Rulc2.0012891272L. Dobias1.7310111110113LOct 3 · 17:15M. Kocvara2.3813912113L. Dobias1.5311111091LOct 3 · 12:14L. Rulc2.201412118123L. Dobias1.611214911102WOct 3 · 11:15R. Pisa2.259101171L. Dobias1.5711127113
R. Pisa10
LOct 5 · 06:15P. Wasik1.401111113R. Pisa2.753950LOct 4 · 12:55R. Pisa2.109450L. Heinzl1.671111113WOct 4 · 11:45L. Heinzl1.73510111192R. Pisa2.00111277113LOct 4 · 10:45M. Kocvara1.9191114113R. Pisa1.801151261LOct 4 · 09:15O. Kaderabek2.00121113113R. Pisa1.731431181LOct 3 · 12:44V. Burylov1.731111923R. Pisa2.00641101LOct 3 · 11:15R. Pisa2.259101171L. Dobias1.5711127113WOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192WOct 3 · 09:15R. Pisa1.8011711113L. Rulc1.91511791WOct 2 · 08:53R. Pisa2.10411711113L. Adam1.6711811572
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