TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Heinzl vs Radovan Pisa 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111012117117911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:39 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Lukas Heinzl at 54.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 47–28 Radovan Pisa Radovan Pisa has won 28 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3954.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Heinzl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
47-28 in 75
Heinzl
Wrong
gap of 19 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1722 vs Pisa 1697
Heinzl
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 80% vs Pisa 20%
Heinzl
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 50% vs Pisa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl +1 · Pisa -4
Pisa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Heinzl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.727 / Pisa 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Heinzl)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240328
Heinzl1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 148 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it80% 111 of 139
Pisa2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 85 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back29% 28 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl6wins
AwayPisa4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl50%3 of 6
AwayPisa25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl6Pisa4n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S2Heinzl6Pisa4n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S3Heinzl4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S4Heinzl5Pisa2n = 7Heinzl took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlPisaH − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.139.6+2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 638 vs 381 / 78954.2%48.3%346 / 638 vs 381 / 789Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.73/Pisa 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 08:23L. Heinzl48111214113R. Pisa418101671
LAug 31 · 06:15L. Heinzl401112981R. Pisa4481411113
LAug 29 · 10:45L. Heinzl52111291192R. Pisa52714119113
WAug 28 · 06:00L. Heinzl4481411113R. Pisa341112471
WJul 24 · 08:48L. Heinzl341112113R. Pisa2381050
WJul 24 · 07:45L. Heinzl4691111153R. Pisa411198131
LJul 9 · 16:36L. Heinzl39158971R. Pisa46131111113
LJul 9 · 14:30L. Heinzl2361160R. Pisa351113113
WJul 7 · 07:15L. Heinzl5410111011123R. Pisa49127128102
WJul 2 · 19:45L. Heinzl411218113R. Pisa31101650
L. Heinzl10
WOct 4 · 10:15O. Kaderabek2.50410141192L. Heinzl1.501112125113LOct 4 · 09:45M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Heinzl1.448780WSep 30 · 16:21L. Heinzl1.171114104113M. Myler4.50712121132WSep 30 · 15:15M. Myler2.109101191L. Heinzl1.6711126113WSep 30 · 14:45L. Heinzl1.611211123L. Rulc2.20107100LSep 30 · 13:45L. Heinzl1.50911129172S. Rejent2.501191011193LSep 29 · 16:49O. Mezera2.381215113L. Heinzl1.53101390LSep 29 · 15:45L. Heinzl1.25912991O. Mezera3.75111011113WSep 29 · 14:15M. Kocvara2.75811991L. Heinzl1.4011811113LSep 29 · 13:45J. Krames Sr2.2012711123L. Heinzl1.6110113101
R. Pisa10
LOct 4 · 10:45M. Kocvara1.9191114113R. Pisa1.801151261LOct 4 · 09:15O. Kaderabek2.00121113113R. Pisa1.731431181LOct 3 · 12:44V. Burylov1.731111923R. Pisa2.00641101LOct 3 · 11:15R. Pisa2.259101171L. Dobias1.5711127113WOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192WOct 3 · 09:15R. Pisa1.8011711113L. Rulc1.91511791WOct 2 · 08:53R. Pisa2.10411711113L. Adam1.6711811572WOct 2 · 07:45M. Vyskocil1.801111101122R. Pisa1.91671211143WOct 2 · 06:45O. Kaderabek2.0011119972R. Pisa1.73991111113WOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam1.6751191242R. Pisa2.101191110113
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