TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Heinzl vs Stepan Rejent 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111912109111719
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:41 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Stepan Rejent below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 17-19
Point 118 set 5, 17-19 · our read held Lukas Heinzl at 64.5%
118 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 30–14 Stepan Rejent Stepan Rejent has won 14 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4164.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Heinzl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-14 in 44
Heinzl
Wrong
gap of 16 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1707 vs Rejent 1619
Heinzl
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 40% vs Rejent 60%
Rejent
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 50% vs Rejent 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl -2 · Rejent -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Heinzl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rejent form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.50 / Rejent 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Heinzl)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219250
Heinzl1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 152 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it95% 73 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it79% 113 of 144
Rejent2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 81 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl7wins
AwayRejent3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl100%5 of 5
AwayRejent60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl5Rejent5n = 10split evenly
S2Heinzl7Rejent3n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S3Heinzl7Rejent3n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S4Heinzl6Rejent2n = 8Heinzl took 6 of 8
S5Heinzl1Rejent2n = 3Rejent took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlRejentH − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.538.9+3.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlRejentBasisWin rate · lifetime349 / 648 vs 359 / 76353.9%47.1%349 / 648 vs 359 / 763Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.50/Rejent 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rejent won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 16:54L. Heinzl4111811113S. Rejent33511981
WSep 28 · 14:15L. Heinzl511171210113S. Rejent48811101272
LAug 10 · 13:45L. Heinzl578141015102S. Rejent6011121213123
WAug 9 · 20:13L. Heinzl351111133S. Rejent2283110
WAug 9 · 19:15L. Heinzl4381113113S. Rejent351171161
LAug 7 · 16:13L. Heinzl4141171182S. Rejent47116118113
WAug 7 · 15:15L. Heinzl351113113S. Rejent2551190
WJul 20 · 16:14L. Heinzl4491111133S. Rejent331165111
LJul 20 · 15:15L. Heinzl32811851S. Rejent4111811113
WJul 2 · 20:43L. Heinzl4611611183S. Rejent459119161
L. Heinzl10
LSep 29 · 16:49O. Mezera2.381215113L. Heinzl1.53101390LSep 29 · 15:45L. Heinzl1.25912991O. Mezera3.75111011113WSep 29 · 14:15M. Kocvara2.75811991L. Heinzl1.4011811113LSep 29 · 13:45J. Krames Sr2.2012711123L. Heinzl1.6110113101WSep 28 · 16:54L. Heinzl1.5011811113S. Rejent2.50511981LSep 28 · 15:45L. Heinzl1.44118911102A. Radkovsky2.63811118123WSep 28 · 14:15S. Rejent2.63811101272L. Heinzl1.441171210113WSep 28 · 13:45M. Makara2.207360L. Heinzl1.611111113LSep 27 · 16:49L. Heinzl1.67611771J. Krames Sr2.1011811113WSep 27 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.8386130L. Heinzl1.831111153
S. Rejent10
LSep 30 · 14:15M. Myler2.00581111123S. Rejent1.73111168102LSep 28 · 16:54L. Heinzl1.5011811113S. Rejent2.50511981WSep 28 · 15:15S. Rejent1.731011811113M. Makara2.0012911862LSep 28 · 14:15S. Rejent2.63811101272L. Heinzl1.441171210113WSep 28 · 13:15S. Rejent1.7311711123A. Radkovsky2.008118101WSep 27 · 16:30S. Rejent2.02131111113L. Svoboda1.70159461LSep 27 · 16:00O. Mezera3.251313113S. Rejent1.33111190LSep 27 · 15:00M. Kovarik2.101211113S. Rejent1.6710790LSep 27 · 13:30L. Svoboda1.7311115163S. Rejent2.007711141WSep 23 · 16:43S. Rejent1.53111111123O. Mezera2.387134101
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