TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Heinzl vs Stepan Rejent 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115811119118––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Stepan Rejent below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8
74 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 29–14 Stepan Rejent Stepan Rejent has won 14 of their 43 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Heinzl beat Rejent 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rejent form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.50 / Rejent 2.50
Setka Cup · #13212621
Heinzl1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 148 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it95% 72 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it78% 109 of 139
Rejent2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 82 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl7wins
AwayRejent3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl100%5 of 5
AwayRejent60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl5Rejent5n = 10split evenly
S2Heinzl7Rejent3n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S3Heinzl6Rejent4n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S4Heinzl6Rejent2n = 8Heinzl took 6 of 8
S5Heinzl2Rejent2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlRejentH − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.339.5+3.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlRejentBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 643 vs 359 / 76254%47.1%347 / 643 vs 359 / 762Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.50/Rejent 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–1
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 14:15L. Heinzl511171210113S. Rejent48811101272
LAug 10 · 13:45L. Heinzl578141015102S. Rejent6011121213123
WAug 9 · 20:13L. Heinzl351111133S. Rejent2283110
WAug 9 · 19:15L. Heinzl4381113113S. Rejent351171161
LAug 7 · 16:13L. Heinzl4141171182S. Rejent47116118113
WAug 7 · 15:15L. Heinzl351113113S. Rejent2551190
WJul 20 · 16:14L. Heinzl4491111133S. Rejent331165111
LJul 20 · 15:15L. Heinzl32811851S. Rejent4111811113
WJul 2 · 20:43L. Heinzl4611611183S. Rejent459119161
WJul 2 · 17:45L. Heinzl49118711123S. Rejent39311114102
L. Heinzl10
LSep 28 · 15:45L. Heinzl1.44118911102A. Radkovsky2.63811118123WSep 28 · 14:15S. Rejent2.63811101272L. Heinzl1.441171210113WSep 28 · 13:45M. Makara2.207360L. Heinzl1.611111113LSep 27 · 16:49L. Heinzl1.67611771J. Krames Sr2.1011811113WSep 27 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.8386130L. Heinzl1.831111153LSep 27 · 14:45J. Krames Sr2.251111113L. Heinzl1.579670WSep 27 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.7391191292L. Heinzl2.001141110113WSep 27 · 08:49L. Heinzl1.571011115113M. Kovarik2.2512791192WSep 27 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.36111110113M. Kocvara3.00881261LSep 27 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.38813611113L. Heinzl1.53111111682
S. Rejent10
WSep 28 · 15:15S. Rejent1.731011811113M. Makara2.0012911862LSep 28 · 14:15S. Rejent2.63811101272L. Heinzl1.441171210113WSep 28 · 13:15S. Rejent1.7311711123A. Radkovsky2.008118101WSep 27 · 16:30S. Rejent2.02131111113L. Svoboda1.70159461LSep 27 · 16:00O. Mezera3.251313113S. Rejent1.33111190LSep 27 · 15:00M. Kovarik2.101211113S. Rejent1.6710790LSep 27 · 13:30L. Svoboda1.7311115163S. Rejent2.007711141WSep 23 · 16:43S. Rejent1.53111111123O. Mezera2.387134101WSep 23 · 15:45M. Myler1.91101040S. Rejent1.801212113LSep 23 · 14:45L. Rulc1.80911119113S. Rejent1.9111961142
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