TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Josef Chalupa vs Lukas Heinzl 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8116111315––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Chalupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Chalupa above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Point 64 set 3, 13-15 — our read held Josef Chalupa at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Josef Chalupa 21–21 Lukas Heinzl Dead even across their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:46What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Heinzl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-21 in 42
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1804 vs Heinzl 1731
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 40% vs Heinzl 60%
Heinzl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 70% vs Heinzl 50%
Chalupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +1 · Heinzl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.83 / Heinzl 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chalupa)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13202823
Chalupa1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Heinzl1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa4wins
AwayHeinzl6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa75%3 of 4
AwayHeinzl83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S3Chalupa5Heinzl5n = 10split evenly
S4Chalupa1Heinzl4n = 5Heinzl took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaHeinzlC − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.935.8−0.9per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 362 vs 350 / 64654.7%54.2%198 / 362 vs 350 / 646Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.83/Heinzl 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 13:05J. Chalupa401271291L. Heinzl46101114113
LAug 23 · 12:00J. Chalupa3641110111L. Heinzl4311712133
LAug 16 · 08:48J. Chalupa32691161L. Heinzl3911116113
WAug 16 · 06:45J. Chalupa341111123L. Heinzl2697100
LMay 29 · 21:18J. Chalupa279990L. Heinzl331111113
WMay 29 · 18:30J. Chalupa5712111111123L. Heinzl51147713102
WMay 13 · 20:23J. Chalupa45111111123L. Heinzl337133101
LMay 13 · 19:15J. Chalupa258980L. Heinzl331111113
WApr 4 · 08:43J. Chalupa331111113L. Heinzl217950
LApr 4 · 07:45J. Chalupa207850L. Heinzl331111113
J. Chalupa10
LSep 27 · 16:20J. Chalupa1.67116791D. Gasparovic2.1091111113WSep 27 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.9154111172J. Chalupa1.8011116993LSep 27 · 13:45J. Sr1.91811136113J. Chalupa1.80114111152LSep 26 · 20:20J. Chalupa2.20881191J. Sr1.6111118113WSep 26 · 19:15J. Sr1.8311751362J. Chalupa1.837111111113LSep 26 · 18:45J. Chalupa1.8311117992L. Dobias1.83881111113WSep 26 · 17:45J. Chalupa1.401111113M. Makara2.751880WSep 22 · 20:24J. Chalupa1.5391211123V. Grubr2.3811106101WSep 22 · 19:15V. Grubr2.38114781J. Chalupa1.5371111113WSep 22 · 18:45J. Chalupa1.801111113V. Burylov1.918380
L. Heinzl10
LSep 27 · 14:45J. Sr2.251111113L. Heinzl1.579670WSep 27 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.7391191292L. Heinzl2.001141110113WSep 27 · 08:49L. Heinzl1.571011115113M. Kovarik2.2512791192WSep 27 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.36111110113M. Kocvara3.00881261LSep 27 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.38813611113L. Heinzl1.53111111682WSep 27 · 05:45M. Zelinka1.806570L. Heinzl1.911111113LSep 26 · 12:14L. Heinzl1.577121151J. Sr2.2511149113WSep 26 · 11:15J. Sr2.202960L. Heinzl1.611111113LSep 26 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.9194111122M. Zelinka1.80111194113LSep 26 · 09:45L. Heinzl2.2511611552L. Dobias1.57711711113
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