TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Krames Sr vs Lukas Heinzl 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116117––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Krames Sr above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 56.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krames Sr 34–44 Lukas Heinzl Jan Krames Sr has won 34 of their 78 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:26What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Heinzl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-44 in 78
Heinzl
Wrong
gap of 10 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sr 1772 vs Heinzl 1744
Sr
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sr 80% vs Heinzl 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sr 50% vs Heinzl 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sr +2 · Heinzl +3
Heinzl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heinzl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSr 2.25 / Heinzl 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Heinzl)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13202728
Sr2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 41 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Heinzl1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 146 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it95% 71 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it79% 108 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSr5wins
AwayHeinzl5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSr100%5 of 5
AwayHeinzl100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sr5Heinzl5n = 10split evenly
S2Sr4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S3Sr2Heinzl8n = 10Heinzl took 8 of 10
S4Sr3Heinzl1n = 4Sr took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSrHeinzlS − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.033.1−1.1per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime390 / 697 vs 350 / 64556%54.3%390 / 697 vs 350 / 645Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlSr 2.25/Heinzl 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 12:14J. Sr4511149113L. Heinzl357121151
LSep 26 · 11:15J. Sr172960L. Heinzl331111113
WAug 30 · 10:45J. Sr5411121010113L. Heinzl44510121252
LAug 28 · 13:45J. Sr2275100L. Heinzl341111123
LAug 23 · 10:00J. Sr238780L. Heinzl331111113
WAug 7 · 13:45J. Sr44111110123L. Heinzl324612101
LJul 23 · 19:15J. Sr204790L. Heinzl331111113
WJul 9 · 14:00J. Sr331111113L. Heinzl249780
LJul 2 · 18:15J. Sr209740L. Heinzl331111113
WJun 16 · 20:48J. Sr4211811123L. Heinzl305114101
J. Sr10
WSep 27 · 15:15D. Gasparovic1.679101181J. Sr2.1011127113WSep 27 · 13:45J. Sr1.91811136113J. Chalupa1.80114111152WSep 26 · 20:20J. Chalupa2.20881191J. Sr1.6111118113LSep 26 · 19:15J. Sr1.8311751362J. Chalupa1.837111111113WSep 26 · 18:15J. Sr1.611111113M. Makara2.205870WSep 26 · 17:15J. Sr1.8391113113L. Dobias1.831141181WSep 26 · 12:14L. Heinzl1.577121151J. Sr2.2511149113LSep 26 · 11:15J. Sr2.202960L. Heinzl1.611111113LSep 26 · 10:15J. Sr3.0061171142L. Dobias1.36118119113LSep 26 · 09:15J. Sr1.838920M. Zelinka1.831111113
L. Heinzl10
WSep 27 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.8386130L. Heinzl1.831111153WSep 27 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.7391191292L. Heinzl2.001141110113WSep 27 · 08:49L. Heinzl1.571011115113M. Kovarik2.2512791192WSep 27 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.36111110113M. Kocvara3.00881261LSep 27 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.38813611113L. Heinzl1.53111111682WSep 27 · 05:45M. Zelinka1.806570L. Heinzl1.911111113LSep 26 · 12:14L. Heinzl1.577121151J. Sr2.2511149113WSep 26 · 11:15J. Sr2.202960L. Heinzl1.611111113LSep 26 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.9194111122M. Zelinka1.80111194113LSep 26 · 09:45L. Heinzl2.2511611552L. Dobias1.57711711113
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