TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Heinzl vs Matej Kovarik 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012117119511119
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Matej Kovarik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9
96 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 2–2 Matej Kovarik Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kovarik beat Heinzl 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovarik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.57 / Kovarik 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Heinzl)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13205525
Heinzl1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 146 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it95% 71 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it79% 108 of 137
Kovarik2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 11 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHeinzl2wins
AwayKovarik2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl66.7%2 of 3
AwayKovarikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl3Kovarik1n = 4Heinzl took 3 of 4
S2Heinzl1Kovarik3n = 4Kovarik took 3 of 4
S3Heinzl2Kovarik2n = 4split evenly
S4Heinzl1Kovarik3n = 4Kovarik took 3 of 4
S5Heinzl2Kovarik1n = 3Heinzl took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricHeinzlKovarikH − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match44.844.2+0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlKovarikBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 643 vs 45 / 9054.1%50%348 / 643 vs 45 / 90Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.57/Kovarik 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 27 · 06:15L. Heinzl47111111682M. Kovarik49813611113
LSep 2 · 07:15L. Heinzl408119121M. Kovarik4511911143
WApr 10 · 07:15L. Heinzl45114811113M. Kovarik3981111542
WJan 23 · 06:45L. Heinzl47119115113M. Kovarik4491171162
L. Heinzl10
WSep 27 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.36111110113M. Kocvara3.00881261LSep 27 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.38813611113L. Heinzl1.53111111682WSep 27 · 05:45M. Zelinka1.806570L. Heinzl1.911111113LSep 26 · 12:14L. Heinzl1.577121151J. Sr2.2511149113WSep 26 · 11:15J. Sr2.202960L. Heinzl1.611111113LSep 26 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.9194111122M. Zelinka1.80111194113LSep 26 · 09:45L. Heinzl2.2511611552L. Dobias1.57711711113WSep 10 · 08:23L. Heinzl2.501171211113P. Wasik1.5051114892LSep 10 · 07:15P. Wasik1.571211113L. Heinzl2.2510420LSep 10 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.831261051M. Zelinka1.83101112113
M. Kovarik10
WSep 27 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.381111123M. Zelinka1.5395100WSep 27 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.38813611113L. Heinzl1.53111111682LSep 27 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.73411591M. Kocvara2.0011611113WSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121LSep 2 · 06:15M. Kovarik1.5311117772O. Mezera2.38831111113LSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123LAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191LAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113LAug 26 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.20711101172L. Adam1.61119127113LAug 26 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.80101111992V. Grubr1.91129811113
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