TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
David Gasparovic vs Jan Krames Sr 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111012117811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Gasparovic to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Gasparovic above · Jan Krames Sr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 79 set 4, 8-11 — our read held David Gasparovic at 55.8%
79 points played in total.
H2H David Gasparovic 10–9 Jan Krames Sr Jan Krames Sr has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gasparovic
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gasparovic 1721 vs Sr 1772
Sr
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gasparovic 60% vs Sr 80%
Sr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gasparovic 60% vs Sr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gasparovic -2 · Sr +3
Sr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Gasparovic)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGasparovic 1.67 / Sr 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Gasparovic)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13203775
Gasparovic1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 50 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it75% 35 of 47
Sr2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 41 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGasparovic5wins
AwaySr5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGasparovic75%3 of 4
AwaySr66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gasparovic4Sr6n = 10Sr took 6 of 10
S2Gasparovic3Sr7n = 10Sr took 7 of 10
S3Gasparovic7Sr3n = 10Gasparovic took 7 of 10
S4Gasparovic6Sr3n = 9Gasparovic took 6 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGasparovicSrG − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.237.1+0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGasparovicSrBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 183 vs 391 / 69859.6%56%109 / 183 vs 391 / 698Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GasparovicGasparovic 1.67/Sr 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Gasparovic · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 19:15D. Gasparovic44111012113J. Sr368121061
LSep 4 · 20:53D. Gasparovic26761121J. Sr4111118113
LSep 4 · 17:45D. Gasparovic44114111172J. Sr45131173113
WAug 30 · 11:15D. Gasparovic4181111113J. Sr31116681
LAug 28 · 15:45D. Gasparovic2210930J. Sr341211113
WJul 19 · 11:30D. Gasparovic4291111113J. Sr29114681
LJul 17 · 15:30D. Gasparovic29112881J. Sr4181111113
LJul 10 · 20:44D. Gasparovic35981171J. Sr4011117113
WJul 10 · 18:15D. Gasparovic4411148113J. Sr387121181
WMay 23 · 17:15D. Gasparovic45111211113J. Sr36914761
D. Gasparovic10
WSep 27 · 16:20J. Chalupa1.67116791D. Gasparovic2.1091111113LSep 27 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.9154111172J. Chalupa1.8011116993LSep 27 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.7391191292L. Heinzl2.001141110113WSep 13 · 08:54L. Svoboda2.7511850D. Gasparovic1.401311113WSep 13 · 07:45D. Gasparovic1.8013911113L. Svoboda1.911111821WSep 13 · 06:15O. Kaderabek1.918580D. Gasparovic1.801111113LSep 13 · 05:45J. Chalupa1.80611511113D. Gasparovic1.9111611882WSep 12 · 20:45M. Makara1.8341010D. Gasparovic1.831112113WSep 12 · 19:15D. Gasparovic1.83111012113J. Sr1.838121061WSep 12 · 18:15D. Gasparovic2.2011115113Z. Sedivy1.61751151
J. Sr10
WSep 27 · 14:45J. Sr2.251111113L. Heinzl1.579670WSep 27 · 13:45J. Sr1.91811136113J. Chalupa1.80114111152WSep 26 · 20:20J. Chalupa2.20881191J. Sr1.6111118113LSep 26 · 19:15J. Sr1.8311751362J. Chalupa1.837111111113WSep 26 · 18:15J. Sr1.611111113M. Makara2.205870WSep 26 · 17:15J. Sr1.8391113113L. Dobias1.831141181WSep 26 · 12:14L. Heinzl1.577121151J. Sr2.2511149113LSep 26 · 11:15J. Sr2.202960L. Heinzl1.611111113LSep 26 · 10:15J. Sr3.0061171142L. Dobias1.36118119113LSep 12 · 19:15D. Gasparovic1.83111012113J. Sr1.838121061
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