TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Mezera vs Stepan Rejent 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111311119––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:56 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeStepan Rejent to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Stepan Rejent below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 68 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Stepan Rejent at 57.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 18–21 Stepan Rejent Ondrej Mezera has won 18 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:56What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Rejent
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-21 in 39
Rejent
Wrong
gap of 3 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1604 vs Rejent 1622
Rejent
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 40% vs Rejent 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 50% vs Rejent 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera +2 · Rejent -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Rejent) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rejent form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 3.25 / Rejent 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Rejent)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13206161
Mezera3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 113 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back32% 47 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back19% 14 of 73
Rejent1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 76 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it76% 57 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMezera6wins
AwayRejent4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMezera leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezera100%4 of 4
AwayRejent66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera4Rejent6n = 10Rejent took 6 of 10
S2Mezera5Rejent5n = 10split evenly
S3Mezera2Rejent8n = 10Rejent took 8 of 10
S4Mezera4Rejent3n = 7Mezera took 4 of 7
S5Mezera5Rejent0n = 5Mezera took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMezeraRejentM − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.941.0−2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraRejentBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 803 vs 358 / 76148.8%47%392 / 803 vs 358 / 761Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RejentMezera 3.25/Rejent 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.9%
Rejent · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mezera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 16:43O. Mezera347134101S. Rejent45111111123
WSep 23 · 13:15O. Mezera44116511113S. Rejent4671111982
LSep 16 · 17:45O. Mezera357111071S. Rejent4011612113
WSep 14 · 16:15O. Mezera521191011113S. Rejent4581112772
WSep 14 · 15:15O. Mezera46118511113S. Rejent4561111892
WSep 9 · 16:23O. Mezera45311119113S. Rejent4611991162
LSep 9 · 15:15O. Mezera239770S. Rejent331111113
WSep 8 · 15:15O. Mezera51911911113S. Rejent4611911962
WSep 7 · 16:19O. Mezera391117113S. Rejent3171590
LSep 7 · 14:15O. Mezera207490S. Rejent331111113
O. Mezera10
WSep 27 · 14:30L. Svoboda1.4012551192O. Mezera2.751011116113WSep 27 · 14:00M. Kovarik1.611177101O. Mezera2.2071111102WSep 24 · 16:24O. Mezera2.2011911123M. Vyskocil1.617113101LSep 24 · 15:15M. Vyskocil1.57111111113O. Mezera2.25713691LSep 24 · 14:45O. Mezera2.25911101142L. Veigl1.57119125113LSep 24 · 13:45O. Mezera2.256111191M. Kocvara1.5711136113LSep 23 · 16:43S. Rejent1.53111111123O. Mezera2.387134101WSep 23 · 15:15O. Mezera3.75611811153L. Rulc1.25118118132WSep 23 · 14:15O. Mezera2.10111211143M. Myler1.679147121WSep 23 · 13:15O. Mezera1.91116511113S. Rejent1.8071111982
S. Rejent10
WSep 27 · 16:30S. Rejent2.02131111113L. Svoboda1.70159461LSep 27 · 15:00M. Kovarik2.101211113S. Rejent1.6710790LSep 27 · 13:30L. Svoboda1.7311115163S. Rejent2.007711141WSep 23 · 16:43S. Rejent1.53111111123O. Mezera2.387134101WSep 23 · 15:45M. Myler1.91101040S. Rejent1.801212113LSep 23 · 14:45L. Rulc1.80911119113S. Rejent1.9111961142LSep 23 · 13:15O. Mezera1.91116511113S. Rejent1.8071111982LSep 16 · 20:48L. Rulc2.00111011113S. Rejent1.73812671WSep 16 · 19:45S. Rejent2.1011118113L. Rulc1.67981191WSep 16 · 18:15J. Dufek1.838151151S. Rejent1.8311171113
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