TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Mezera vs Lukas Rulc 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Ondrej Mezera
Home
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111188111181513
Lukas Rulc
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 102 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Lukas Rulc at 79.4%
102 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 3–7 Lukas Rulc Ondrej Mezera has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:20What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Rulc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Rulc
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1578 vs Rulc 1668
Rulc
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 60% vs Rulc 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 40% vs Rulc 60%
Rulc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera +2 · Rulc +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Rulc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 3.75 / Rulc 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Rulc)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13180309
Mezera3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 110 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back32% 46 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back19% 14 of 73
Rulc1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 90 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it66% 62 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMezera3wins
AwayRulc7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRulc leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezera33.3%1 of 3
AwayRulc71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera3Rulc7n = 10Rulc took 7 of 10
S2Mezera1Rulc9n = 10Rulc took 9 of 10
S3Mezera3Rulc6n = 9Rulc took 6 of 9
S4Mezera3Rulc3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMezeraRulcM − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.740.1−7.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime396 / 804 vs 342 / 68549.3%49.9%396 / 804 vs 342 / 685Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RulcMezera 3.75/Rulc 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mezera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 16 · 18:45O. Mezera226790L. Rulc331111113
WAug 22 · 12:53O. Mezera4311511163L. Rulc428119141
LAug 22 · 09:45O. Mezera165380L. Rulc331111113
LJul 26 · 14:15O. Mezera30751171L. Rulc4211119113
WJul 10 · 07:15O. Mezera491011512113L. Rulc47128111062
LJul 5 · 19:45O. Mezera33116971L. Rulc4291111113
LJan 9 · 13:39O. Mezera2031070L. Rulc341112113
WJan 9 · 10:15O. Mezera518101111113L. Rulc4711128972
LDec 12 · 09:00O. Mezera30114781L. Rulc4181111113
O. Mezera10
WSep 23 · 14:15O. Mezera2.10111211143M. Myler1.679147121WSep 23 · 13:15O. Mezera1.91116511113S. Rejent1.8071111982LSep 22 · 16:19O. Mezera2.38814711112L. Veigl1.531112118133WSep 22 · 15:15L. Veigl1.5311117972O. Mezera2.38681111113LSep 22 · 14:45O. Mezera2.0071181172M. Myler1.73118118113LSep 22 · 13:45O. Mezera2.001011991J. Senk1.7312911113LSep 16 · 20:18O. Mezera1.834490J. Dufek1.831111113WSep 16 · 19:15J. Dufek1.838101111112O. Mezera1.83111292133LSep 16 · 18:45O. Mezera3.506790L. Rulc1.281111113LSep 16 · 17:45O. Mezera2.207111071S. Rejent1.6111612113
L. Rulc10
WSep 23 · 16:14M. Myler2.0051090L. Rulc1.731112113WSep 23 · 14:45L. Rulc1.80911119113S. Rejent1.9111961142LSep 23 · 13:45L. Rulc1.678118101M. Myler2.1011911123WSep 22 · 12:19L. Rulc1.831111113L. Adam1.837990LSep 22 · 11:15L. Adam1.73411711123L. Rulc2.00115117102WSep 22 · 10:45L. Rulc1.80111111113M. Makara1.91813941LSep 22 · 09:45L. Rulc1.736980T. Liska2.001111113WSep 16 · 20:48L. Rulc2.00111011113S. Rejent1.73812671LSep 16 · 19:45S. Rejent2.1011118113L. Rulc1.67981191WSep 16 · 18:45O. Mezera3.506790L. Rulc1.281111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.