TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Stepan Rejent vs Lukas Svoboda 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1315119114116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingStepan Rejent above · Lukas Svoboda below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 80 set 4, 11-6
80 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Rejent 16–15 Lukas Svoboda Lukas Svoboda has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Svoboda beat Rejent 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Svoboda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRejent 2.02 / Svoboda 1.70
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Svoboda)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13207334
Rejent2.02
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 81 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 64
Svoboda1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 29 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRejent4wins
AwaySvoboda6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRejent75%3 of 4
AwaySvoboda83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rejent4Svoboda6n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S2Rejent3Svoboda7n = 10Svoboda took 7 of 10
S3Rejent6Svoboda4n = 10Rejent took 6 of 10
S4Rejent3Svoboda5n = 8Svoboda took 5 of 8
S5Rejent3Svoboda3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRejentSvobodaR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.945.2−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRejentSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 762 vs 79 / 16947%46.8%358 / 762 vs 79 / 169Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaRejent 2.02/Svoboda 1.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.1%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rejent won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 27 · 13:30S. Rejent397711141L. Svoboda4311115163
WSep 10 · 14:15S. Rejent49111285133L. Svoboda529101111112
WAug 3 · 18:45S. Rejent44471111113L. Svoboda4111113972
LJul 12 · 16:19S. Rejent35119691L. Svoboda3631111113
LJul 12 · 13:45S. Rejent4577111192L. Svoboda50111189113
WJul 7 · 16:43S. Rejent531191012113L. Svoboda49711121092
LJul 7 · 13:45S. Rejent2791080L. Svoboda341112113
LJul 6 · 13:45S. Rejent3851111562L. Svoboda48119611113
LSep 6 · 20:13S. Rejent4791411762L. Svoboda541112911113
S. Rejent10
LSep 27 · 16:00O. Mezera3.251313113S. Rejent1.33111190LSep 27 · 15:00M. Kovarik2.101211113S. Rejent1.6710790LSep 27 · 13:30L. Svoboda1.7311115163S. Rejent2.007711141WSep 23 · 16:43S. Rejent1.53111111123O. Mezera2.387134101WSep 23 · 15:45M. Myler1.91101040S. Rejent1.801212113LSep 23 · 14:45L. Rulc1.80911119113S. Rejent1.9111961142LSep 23 · 13:15O. Mezera1.91116511113S. Rejent1.8071111982LSep 16 · 20:48L. Rulc2.00111011113S. Rejent1.73812671WSep 16 · 19:45S. Rejent2.1011118113L. Rulc1.67981191WSep 16 · 18:15J. Dufek1.838151151S. Rejent1.8311171113
L. Svoboda10
LSep 27 · 15:30L. Svoboda1.7311113962M. Kovarik2.00891111113LSep 27 · 14:30L. Svoboda1.4012551192O. Mezera2.751011116113WSep 27 · 13:30L. Svoboda1.7311115163S. Rejent2.007711141LSep 21 · 08:18L. Svoboda2.2513711752O. Kaderabek1.571111611113WSep 21 · 07:45V. Burylov1.7378150L. Svoboda2.001111173LSep 21 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.6111119113L. Svoboda2.20961171LSep 21 · 05:15P. Wasik1.831111113L. Svoboda1.835460WSep 20 · 16:23V. Burylov1.617850L. Svoboda2.201111113WSep 20 · 15:15L. Svoboda2.38712811123V. Burylov1.531110118102WSep 20 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.679111193T. Liska2.10117881
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