TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Svoboda vs Matej Kovarik 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118119311911611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Svoboda to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Matej Kovarik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Lukas Svoboda at 56.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 1–0 Matej Kovarik Matej Kovarik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:46What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1651 vs Kovarik 1651
Kovarik
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 40% vs Kovarik 60%
Kovarik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 60% vs Kovarik 40%
Svoboda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -1 · Kovarik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.73 / Kovarik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Svoboda)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13203270
Svoboda1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 29 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Kovarik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 11 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSvoboda1wins
AwayKovarik0wins
Svoboda leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSvobodaKovarikS − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match47.035.0+12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaKovarikBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 168 vs 46 / 9247%50%79 / 168 vs 46 / 92Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.73/Kovarik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovarik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 5 · 06:15L. Svoboda47131211113M. Kovarik351114191
L. Svoboda10
LSep 27 · 14:30L. Svoboda1.4012551192O. Mezera2.751011116113WSep 27 · 13:30L. Svoboda1.7311115163S. Rejent2.007711141LSep 21 · 08:18L. Svoboda2.2513711752O. Kaderabek1.571111611113WSep 21 · 07:45V. Burylov1.7378150L. Svoboda2.001111173LSep 21 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.6111119113L. Svoboda2.20961171LSep 21 · 05:15P. Wasik1.831111113L. Svoboda1.835460WSep 20 · 16:23V. Burylov1.617850L. Svoboda2.201111113WSep 20 · 15:15L. Svoboda2.38712811123V. Burylov1.531110118102WSep 20 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.679111193T. Liska2.10117881WSep 20 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.73111268113L. Veigl2.00810111152
M. Kovarik10
WSep 27 · 15:00M. Kovarik2.101211113S. Rejent1.6710790LSep 27 · 14:00M. Kovarik1.611177101O. Mezera2.2071111102LSep 27 · 08:49L. Heinzl1.571011115113M. Kovarik2.2512791192WSep 27 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.381111123M. Zelinka1.5395100WSep 27 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.38813611113L. Heinzl1.53111111682LSep 27 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.73411591M. Kocvara2.0011611113WSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121LSep 2 · 06:15M. Kovarik1.5311117772O. Mezera2.38831111113LSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123LAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191
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